409 S Gilmor St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$78,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Townhouse · 107 Days on market

Built 1920 $71/sqft · 10% below area Est $86k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great portfolio add or value-play in West/Southwest Baltimore! 3BR brick rowhome with luxury vinyl plank flooring, separate living room + dining area, and solid layout for a rental hold or renovate-to-resale strategy. Surrounding blocks show continued reinvestment and redevelopment momentum—Hollins Market’s revitalization, the growing UM BioPark / 4MLK life-science hub, and broader city/state-supported neighborhood initiatives add to the long-term upside. Convenient access to Downtown, UMB area, major commuter routes and transit. Buy, stabilize, and let the area grow around you. Sold strictly as-is—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Separate living room
• Transit

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SEPARATE LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES
• TRANSIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $858 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,754/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1755% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6991% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $78k implies a 680% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,980 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.16%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,398
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: -9.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1404 Lemmon St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$172	84
1244 Carroll St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,140 (+4%)	0mo	$213,900	$188	70
2402 Wilkens Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-1%)	0mo	$45,000	$41	62
1226 W Pratt St	0.31mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,000 (-9%)	2mo	$80,000	$80	62
915 Washington Blvd	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,142 (+4%)	2mo	$197,500	$173	59
1110 W Lombard St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,206 (+10%)	1mo	$180,000	$149	57
1145 W Cross St	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,172 (+6%)	2mo	$121,900	$104	54
2130 Eagle St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-9%)	2mo	$78,110	$78	52
528 S Bentalou St	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,032 (-6%)	0mo	$190,000	$184	49
121 Parkin St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+10%)	0mo	$175,000	$145	49
835 1/2 W Lombard St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,242 (+13%)	1mo	$255,000	$205	43
509 Otterbein St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (+10%)	2mo	$232,500	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $50,370
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $151,825
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 S Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	0.18mi
1262 Glyndon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.0	1258	$1,850	$1.47	23d	1	0.30mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.31mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.31mi
1303 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	0.32mi
514 S Payson St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	0.33mi
1101 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	21d	1	0.33mi
1635 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,850	$1.51	43d	1	0.34mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	12d	1	0.35mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,860	$1.70	4d	1	0.35mi
1601 Frederick Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	4d	1	0.35mi
104 S Carrollton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	4.0	1232	$2,400	$1.95	4d	1	0.36mi
1127 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,900	$1.42	4d	1	0.37mi
1215 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	0.37mi
1253 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	23d	1	0.38mi
1259 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1232	$2,999	$2.43	4d	1	0.41mi
10 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	23d	1	0.41mi
1115 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	43d	1	0.41mi
1243 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,950	$1.70	43d	1	0.41mi
1111 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	4d	1	0.42mi
1142 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,601	$1.48	2d	1	0.43mi
1432 Carroll St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	912	$1,900	$2.08	43d	1	0.44mi
1160 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,575	$1.64	23d	1	0.45mi
1127 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,275	$1.18	23d	1	0.45mi
1163 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1012	$1,700	$1.68	12d	1	0.46mi
1912 W Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,100	$1.75	23d	1	0.47mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,434	$1.67	43d	1	0.47mi
1125 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1200	$2,750	$2.29	17d	1	0.48mi
307 S Smallwood St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.49mi
1839 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1426	$1,675	$1.17	23d	1	0.50mi
923 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,625	$1.61	43d	1	0.52mi
1205 Cleveland St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.54mi
1000 Hollins St Unit 1000 Hollins Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1472	$2,600	$1.77	44d	1	0.55mi
913 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	23d	1	0.56mi
1519 Penrose Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,875	$1.56	43d	1	0.57mi
847 McHenry St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	952	$1,795	$1.89	4d	1	0.57mi
1132 Nanticoke St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	0.60mi
853 Reinhart St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	780	$1,800	$2.31	43d	1	0.61mi
2225 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.64mi
508 Wyeth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1234	$1,850	$1.50	43d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $78,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    historical $1,100
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $1,100
16. 2026-03-03
    listed $78,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Great portfolio add or value-play in West/Southwest Baltimore! 3BR brick rowhome with luxury vinyl plank flooring, separate living room + dining area, and solid layout for a rental hold or renovate-to-resale strategy. Surrounding blocks show continued reinvestment and redevelopment momentum—Hollins Market’s revitalization, the growing UM BioPark / 4MLK life-science hub, and broader city/state-supported neighborhood initiatives add to the long-term upside. Convenient access to Downtown, UMB area, major commuter routes and transit. Buy, stabilize, and let the area grow around you. Sold strictly as-is—schedule your showing today.

17. 1998-01-23
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $9,623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,309
• After-tax cash flow: $7,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-89.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Rental Removed $1,100 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-23 Listed for Rent $1,100 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-03 Listed $78,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.