18517 Depot Rd · McKenney, VA 23872

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1974 0.49 ac lot $229/sqft · 6% above area Est $207k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18517 Depot Road! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 960 sq ft of cozy, functional living space. Step inside to a bright, inviting living room and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. Outside, enjoy a large yard with room to expand, entertain, or simply unwind. Perfect for first-time homebuyers! Located in a quiet setting while still being convenient to shopping, dining, and major highways. Affordable, low-maintenance, and full of potential—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Large yard
• Quiet setting
• Convenient to dining

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LARGE YARD
• PLENTY OF CABINET STORAGE
• QUIET SETTING
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#441 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $220k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.16%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,198
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: 6.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18517 Depot Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$208	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $152,876
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $423,901
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23872

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   Welcome to 18517 Depot Road! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 960 sq ft of cozy, functional living space. Step inside to a bright, inviting living room and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. Outside, enjoy a large yard with room to expand, entertain, or simply unwind. Perfect for first-time homebuyers! Located in a quiet setting while still being convenient to shopping, dining, and major highways. Affordable, low-maintenance, and full of potential—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $219,900 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   Welcome to 18517 Depot Road! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 960 sq ft of cozy, functional living space. Step inside to a bright, inviting living room and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. Outside, enjoy a large yard with room to expand, entertain, or simply unwind. Perfect for first-time homebuyers! Located in a quiet setting while still being convenient to shopping, dining, and major highways. Affordable, low-maintenance, and full of potential—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-18
   price $229,000 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   Welcome to 18517 Depot Road! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 960 sq ft of cozy, functional living space. Step inside to a bright, inviting living room and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. Outside, enjoy a large yard with room to expand, entertain, or simply unwind. Perfect for first-time homebuyers! Located in a quiet setting while still being convenient to shopping, dining, and major highways. Affordable, low-maintenance, and full of potential—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $234,900 Active 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   Welcome to 18517 Depot Road! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 960 sq ft of cozy, functional living space. Step inside to a bright, inviting living room and a spacious kitchen with plenty of cabinet storage. Outside, enjoy a large yard with room to expand, entertain, or simply unwind. Perfect for first-time homebuyers! Located in a quiet setting while still being convenient to shopping, dining, and major highways. Affordable, low-maintenance, and full of potential—schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-03-23
   soldstatus $102,500 Closed 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Whether you’re ready to start your real estate portfolio, expand your investments, or take this canvas to create your own vision, this property is the perfect opportunity! Nestled on nearly half an acre in Dinwiddie County, this home offers a serene retreat with plenty of room to grow, customize, or create your dream space over time. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Family Dollar, 15 minutes from Food Lion, under 30 minutes to Petersburg or Blackstone, and less than an hour from Richmond, you’ll enjoy both tranquility and accessibility. Recent updates, upgraded PVC plumbing, a new vapor barrier, and a newer heat pump and water heater—both only a few years old. Get ready to schedule your showing today!

6. 2026-03-19
   soldstatus $102,500
7. 2025-11-04
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Whether you’re ready to start your real estate portfolio, expand your investments, or take this canvas to create your own vision, this property is the perfect opportunity! Nestled on nearly half an acre in Dinwiddie County, this home offers a serene retreat with plenty of room to grow, customize, or create your dream space over time. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Family Dollar, 15 minutes from Food Lion, under 30 minutes to Petersburg or Blackstone, and less than an hour from Richmond, you’ll enjoy both tranquility and accessibility. Recent updates, upgraded PVC plumbing, a new vapor barrier, and a newer heat pump and water heater—both only a few years old. Get ready to schedule your showing today!

8. 2025-10-22
   listed $165,000 Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Whether you’re ready to start your real estate portfolio, expand your investments, or take this canvas to create your own vision, this property is the perfect opportunity! Nestled on nearly half an acre in Dinwiddie County, this home offers a serene retreat with plenty of room to grow, customize, or create your dream space over time. Conveniently located just 5 minutes from Family Dollar, 15 minutes from Food Lion, under 30 minutes to Petersburg or Blackstone, and less than an hour from Richmond, you’ll enjoy both tranquility and accessibility. Recent updates, upgraded PVC plumbing, a new vapor barrier, and a newer heat pump and water heater—both only a few years old. Get ready to schedule your showing today!

9. 2025-07-04
   status Pending
10. 2025-06-23
    listed $199,900 Active
11. 2009-09-22
    historical
12. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $75,900
13. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $75,900
14. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $75,900
15. 2005-04-03
    listed $75,900
16. 2005-04-03
    listed $75,900
17. 2005-03-27
    historical
18. 2004-10-31
    listed $65,900
19. 2004-10-31
    listed $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 119.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,229
• − Management: −$2,229
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $2,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$665
• After-tax cash flow: $5,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — McKenney

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #18946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,511
• Population (ZIP): 2,511

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 35% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 80.66%
• Current HPI: 295.8892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+233.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $219,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $229,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $234,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Sold (MLS) $102,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2025-11-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $165,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-07-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $199,900 CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2005-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 2005-07-01 Sold (MLS) $75,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-07-01 Sold (MLS) $75,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-04-03 Listed $75,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-04-03 Listed $75,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-03-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2004-10-31 Listed $65,900 CVRMLS
• 2004-10-31 Listed $65,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +36.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.