37736 Phelps Rd · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1955 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR ALERT!! This 1/3 acre fixer upper presents a prime investment opportunity for those looking to build equity in a peaceful country setting. The property is centered around a spacious double wide manufactured home that is ready for a full renovation to suit your vision. In addition to the main residence, the lot features two separate shop or garage structures that offer incredible versatility for storage, hobbies, or workspace. One of these additional structures is already equipped with washer and dryer hookups, providing extra utility and potential. The land itself is a standout feature, adorned with beautiful mature oak trees that create a shaded and private atmosphere. The land

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Private atmosphere
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• TWO SEPARATE SHOP STRUCTURES
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• MATURE OAK TREES
• PRIVATE ATMOSPHERE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot on dirt road; Lot acreage between 1/4 and 1/2 acre (approx. 0.31 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Homestead exemption indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; North-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Linoleum floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall or window cooling units
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $99k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.22%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $11,065
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $33,942
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $614/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8129 Cass Rd Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,100	$2.04	24d	1	1.05mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-11
   price $99,000
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $109,000 Active
3. 2017-05-16
   soldstatus $21,000
4. 2014-12-26
   historical
5. 2014-06-25
   listed $36,000 Active
6. 2010-10-05
   historical
7. 2010-08-22
   listed $28,900
8. 1995-11-02
   soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$207/yr (+$17/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$614
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,523
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $4,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+157.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-25 Listed $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-22 Listed $28,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $614 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.