1407 Nichols St · Ennis, TX 75119

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1959 8,625 sqft lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS AND ALL SHOPPING CONVIENENCES. THIS HOME IS GREAT FOR A FAMILY TO ENJOY. FENCED BACKYARD AND 2CAR GARAGE WITH ELEC OPENER. REFRIG AND STOVE ARE NEGOTIABLE ITEMS

Key facts

• Mature shade trees
• Generous backyard
• 8,625 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single-family residence; Lot is approximately 0.198 acre (less than 0.5 acre); Easements: None; Horse permitted: No; Dock permitted: No; Soil: Black; vegetation: grassed; Community features: Other; Other equipment: Negotiable; Listing terms include 1031 Exchange, Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA Loan and others
• Financial info: Second mortgage: Yes
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 20' width, 20' length and 9' height; Carport for 2 vehicles; Driveway; On-street parking; Paved parking; Garage with workshop space and garage door opener; On-site parking
• Security: Security features: Unknown
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Curbs
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1959; Brick and wood construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Landscaped yard; Large grassy backyard; Shed(s); Chain link/metal fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on one level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; Plantation shutters and window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room; Laundry area in garage; On-site laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($720/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ennis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 359 students, 77% FRL); Ennis J H (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 886 students, 69% FRL); Ennis H S (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,791 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,762 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 Loy Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,229 (+6%)	7mo	$249,000	$203	78
1400 Nichols St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+5%)	14mo	$185,000	$151	75
606 Travis St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,071 (-8%)	6mo	$135,000	$126	74
1504 Nichols St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+10%)	10mo	$250,000	$195	69
901 N Breckenridge St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,160 (-0%)	15mo	$69,000	$59	54
710 N Sherman St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,208 (+4%)	8mo	$237,500	$197	52
607 NW Main St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,054 (-9%)	1mo	$125,000	$119	48
602 N Clay St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+15%)	4mo	$224,000	$168	45
609 N Sherman St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+13%)	8mo	$299,000	$229	42
570 Lakeshore Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-12%)	14mo	$223,000	$218	41
907 W Main St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+14%)	10mo	$68,000	$51	38
804 N Mckinney St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (+13%)	8mo	$206,000	$157	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,716
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,616
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75119

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,598/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $117	+0% $60	+5% $3	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $-6	+0% $60	+5% $126	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $111	base $60	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1203 N Clay St Unit 122 Ennis, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	0.20mi
800 N Clay St Apt E14 Ennis, TX	2.0	1.0	803	$1,000	$1.25	18d	1	0.44mi
517 Cherry Ln Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1440	$1,975	$1.37	14d	1	0.47mi
715 W Tyler St Unit 715 Ennis, TX	4.0	1.5	1000	$1,700	$1.70	45d	1	0.52mi
205 W Gilmer St Ennis, TX	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,495	$1.42	14d	1	0.53mi
205 W Gilmer St Ennis, TX	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,400	$1.33	9d	1	0.53mi
2001 Floyd St Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,641	$1.22	0d	1	0.69mi
508 W Baylor St Apt B Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,495	$1.19	24d	1	0.80mi
910 W Knox St Unit B Ennis, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	45d	1	0.85mi
2000 N Kaufman St Ennis, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0	821	$1,300	$1.58	0d	5	0.88mi
601 Casa Linda St Ennis, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,695	$1.37	20d	1	0.92mi
110 W Knox St Unit 202 Ennis, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$1,400	$1.59	26d	1	0.95mi
206 E Belknap St Ennis, TX	3.0	1.0	1442	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	0.95mi
806 Phillips Dr Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,800	$1.56	0d	1	1.10mi
806 Phillips Dr Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,800	$1.56	12d	1	1.10mi
1803 W Ennis Ave Ennis, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	908	$1,754	$1.93	0d	13	1.15mi
710 W Waco St Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,750	$1.60	14d	1	1.19mi
605 SW Main St Ennis, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$1,500	$1.91	26d	1	1.36mi
914 S Chatfield St Ennis, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,595	$1.68	8d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $200,000 Active
2. 2005-08-08
   soldstatus
3. 2005-07-29
   soldstatus 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS AND ALL SHOPPING CONVIENENCES. THIS HOME IS GREAT FOR A FAMILY TO ENJOY. FENCED BACKYARD AND 2CAR GARAGE WITH ELEC OPENER. REFRIG AND STOVE ARE NEGOTIABLE ITEMS

4. 2005-07-05
   historical 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS AND ALL SHOPPING CONVIENENCES. THIS HOME IS GREAT FOR A FAMILY TO ENJOY. FENCED BACKYARD AND 2CAR GARAGE WITH ELEC OPENER. REFRIG AND STOVE ARE NEGOTIABLE ITEMS

5. 2005-06-10
   listed $79,900 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE. CLOSE TO SCHOOLS AND ALL SHOPPING CONVIENENCES. THIS HOME IS GREAT FOR A FAMILY TO ENJOY. FENCED BACKYARD AND 2CAR GARAGE WITH ELEC OPENER. REFRIG AND STOVE ARE NEGOTIABLE ITEMS

6. 1986-03-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,062/yr (+$172/mo · 129.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,598
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$650
• After-tax cash flow: $1,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ennis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,105
• Composite: 34.14/100
• National rank: #5283
• State rank: #411 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ennis

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #6893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ennis, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 31,866
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,866
• Household income: $77,053
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.30%
• Current HPI: 253.0134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2005-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-07-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-06-10 Listed $79,900 NTREIS
• 1986-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,598 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.