955 Ell St · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31206

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1959 0.25 ac lot $85/sqft · 83% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All brick home with long rental history. Located in Macon, Georgia with easy access to I75. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath , newer roof was installed under current owner.

Key facts

• Easy access to i75
• Newer roof
• Long rental history

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• LONG RENTAL HISTORY
• EASY ACCESS TO I75
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($30k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.78%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,729
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: 82.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2278 Ballard Pl	0.13mi	3/1.0	868 (+6%)	14mo	$25,000	$29	72
2288 Ballard Pl	0.10mi	3/1.0	868 (+6%)	17mo	$30,000	$35	70
2332 Ballard Pl	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (+6%)	14mo	$25,000	$29	69
2324 Ballard Pl	0.08mi	3/1.0	868 (+6%)	23mo	$57,000	$66	66
2282 Ballard Pl	0.12mi	3/1.0	868 (+6%)	22mo	$35,000	$40	66
3020 Margaret Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	816 (0%)	9mo	$25,000	$31	62
873 Ell St	0.15mi	3/1.0	912 (+12%)	23mo	$60,000	$66	54
1021 Jessamine St	0.37mi	3/1.0	756 (-7%)	23mo	$47,500	$63	51
581 Wyche St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	820 (+0%)	20mo	$13,000	$16	51
1085 Wilson St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-4%)	22mo	$25,000	$32	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $16,433
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $56,448
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31206

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $555

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
806 Armory Dr Unit B Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	43d	1	0.26mi
672 Bowden St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1076	$900	$0.84	21d	1	0.40mi
771 Harold St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	13d	1	0.52mi
663 Williams St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	911	$980	$1.08	43d	1	0.64mi
1089 Brisbane St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	816	$1,075	$1.32	13d	1	0.65mi
2445 Lowe St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	940	$890	$0.95	43d	1	0.77mi
558 Cleveland St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	924	$925	$1.00	43d	1	0.80mi
3149 Somerset Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	897	$745	$0.83	43d	1	0.86mi
3080 Rice Mill Rd Unit C-1 Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1100	$925	$0.84	21d	1	0.91mi
3080 Rice Mill Rd Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.91mi
837 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	966	$750	$0.78	43d	1	0.92mi
832 Elm St Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,175	$1.05	43d	1	0.96mi
3238 Somerset Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	13d	1	0.97mi
668 Grosso Ave Unit A Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	650	$750	$1.15	21d	1	1.05mi
424 Pansy Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	810	$850	$1.05	43d	1	1.06mi
1164 Newberg Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	43d	1	1.06mi
3423 Flamingo Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$895	$0.85	43d	1	1.15mi
1249 Duncan Ave Unit C Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	900	$795	$0.88	43d	1	1.28mi
1249 Duncan Ave Unit B Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	43d	1	1.28mi
1148 N Beddingfield Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1076	$825	$0.77	43d	1	1.38mi
1463 Bankston Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$950	$0.99	43d	1	1.41mi
2585 Napier Ave Unit B Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	644	$850	$1.32	21d	1	1.42mi
864 Tattnall St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	640	$800	$1.25	43d	1	1.43mi
867 Orange Ter #2 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	43d	1	1.44mi
867 Orange Ter Unit B Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,400	$1.29	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $69,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Price Change 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $69,000 Price Change 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $73,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $73,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $73,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    price $73,000

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    All brick home with long rental history. Located in Macon, Georgia with easy access to I75. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath , newer roof was installed under current owner.

18. 2026-04-07
    price $73,000 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    All brick home with long rental history. Located in Macon, Georgia with easy access to I75. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath , newer roof was installed under current owner.

19. 2026-02-20
    price $78,000

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    All brick home with long rental history. Located in Macon, Georgia with easy access to I75. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath , newer roof was installed under current owner.

20. 2026-02-20
    price $78,000 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    All brick home with long rental history. Located in Macon, Georgia with easy access to I75. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath , newer roof was installed under current owner.

21. 2026-01-16
    listed $79,000 New 170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    All brick home with long rental history. Located in Macon, Georgia with easy access to I75. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath , newer roof was installed under current owner.

22. 2021-11-10
    soldstatus $49,900
23. 2021-11-03
    soldstatus $49,900
24. 2021-08-05
    listed $49,900
25. 2016-11-14
    soldstatus $24,000
26. 2004-03-12
    soldstatus $28,500
27. 2003-08-05
    soldstatus $48,254

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$935
• After-tax cash flow: $3,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,310
• Household income: $30,042
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1335.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.17%
• Current HPI: 148.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $73,000 MGMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $73,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $78,000 MGMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $78,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $79,000 GAMLS
• 2021-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2021-11-03 Sold (MLS) $49,900 MGMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listed $49,900 MGMLS
• 2016-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 2003-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,254 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.