12 Tavern Rd · Hadley, NY 12835

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1940 1,306 sqft lot $146/sqft · 24% below area Est $203k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage charm meets Adirondack calm in the heart of Hadley. Tucked away on a quiet dead-end village street, this inviting cottage delivers privacy, character, and thoughtful upgrades that make it truly special. A new metal roof (2024) and on-demand hot water set the tone for smart improvements already in place. Upstairs, the home has been transformed into a private primary suite, fully updated and plumbed for an additional bathroom, with a delightful surprise walk-in closet that adds both function and flair. Downstairs, you'll find a cozy kitchen and living area, a new full bath, and a fun enclosed porch that easily flexes as a second bedroom, home office, or bonus space. A cesspool and dry well are in place for the septic system, with an easement estimated at $6-8K for future replacement if desired. Parking is available across the street, with additional parking possible by arrangement with a neighboring property. While the lot itself is modest, the setting more than delivers--peaceful, village-level quiet with close proximity to the Sacandaga River and the natural beauty that defines life in Hadley. Small footprint. Big personality. A perfect Adirondack escape with updates already done.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Walk-in closet
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENCLOSED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($861/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#974 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $120k implies a 943% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,238 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,173
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -40.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 3rd Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	924 (+13%)	11mo	$188,000	$203	50
81 1st Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	861 (+5%)	23mo	$44,560	$52	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $69,896
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $202,187
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12835

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $140,000 Active 1220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1220 chars)

    Cottage charm meets Adirondack calm in the heart of Hadley. Tucked away on a quiet dead-end village street, this inviting cottage delivers privacy, character, and thoughtful upgrades that make it truly special. A new metal roof (2024) and on-demand hot water set the tone for smart improvements already in place. Upstairs, the home has been transformed into a private primary suite, fully updated and plumbed for an additional bathroom, with a delightful surprise walk-in closet that adds both function and flair. Downstairs, you'll find a cozy kitchen and living area, a new full bath, and a fun enclosed porch that easily flexes as a second bedroom, home office, or bonus space. A cesspool and dry well are in place for the septic system, with an easement estimated at $6-8K for future replacement if desired. Parking is available across the street, with additional parking possible by arrangement with a neighboring property. While the lot itself is modest, the setting more than delivers--peaceful, village-level quiet with close proximity to the Sacandaga River and the natural beauty that defines life in Hadley. Small footprint. Big personality. A perfect Adirondack escape with updates already done.

16. 2026-04-13
    historical
17. 2026-03-27
    price $140,000
18. 2026-01-02
    listed $157,777 Active
19. 2017-02-01
    soldstatus $11,500
20. 2017-01-17
    historical
21. 2016-10-03
    listed $19,900
22. 2016-06-01
    historical
23. 2016-05-31
    historical
24. 2016-02-05
    price $42,000
25. 2015-12-19
    price $59,000
26. 2015-12-19
    status Active
27. 2015-12-14
    historical
28. 2015-12-07
    listed $42,000
29. 2015-12-05
    listed $42,000 Active
30. 2011-11-01
    soldstatus $40,000
31. 2011-08-02
    historical
32. 2011-07-12
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,496 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $1,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hadley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #19019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hadley, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,700

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.89%
• Current HPI: 328.7243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $140,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $140,000 Global MLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $157,777 Global MLS
• 2017-02-01 Sold (MLS) $11,500 Global MLS
• 2017-01-17 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-10-03 Listed $19,900 Global MLS
• 2016-06-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-05-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2016-02-05 Price Changed $42,000 Global MLS
• 2015-12-19 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2015-12-19 Price Changed $59,000 Global MLS
• 2015-12-14 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-12-07 Listed $42,000 Global MLS
• 2015-12-05 Listed $42,000 Global MLS
• 2011-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-02 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2011-07-12 Listed $40,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.