16303 Lyons School Rd #701 · Houston, TX 77379

$98,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Condo public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1981 $231/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property opportunity. ROI 10% after property taxes and $231 monthly HOA dues. Downstairs 2 bedroom 2 bath 988 sq ft condominium. Fully renovated in 2022. Currently leased at $1150 per month with potential to increase rent to $1325. Primary bedroom has attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Conveniently located near schools, grocery stores, banking and shopping. Owner moving.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,635 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.64%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-12,803
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-16,421
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,555/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$231
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $135	+0% $107	+5% $79	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $55	+0% $107	+5% $158	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $132	base $107	+0.5pp $81	+1.0pp $55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16339 Stuebner Airline Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,300	$1.54	3d	21	0.06mi
16414 Stuebner Airline Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,450	$1.81	17d	13	0.21mi
16222 Stuebner Airline Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,260	$1.43	2d	15	0.25mi
16421 Southampton Dr Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	984	$1,245	$1.27	44d	1	0.26mi
16156 Stuebner Airline Rd Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	613	$1,043	$1.70	44d	1	0.29mi
16799 Kleinwood Dr Unit EAC Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	643	$1,031	$1.60	12d	1	0.55mi
7203 Oakwood Glen Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	926	$1,299	$1.40	4d	7	0.62mi
7209 Oakwood Glen Blvd Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	806	$1,015	$1.26	44d	1	0.66mi
7133 Oakwood Glen Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$1,040	$1.43	6d	17	0.66mi
16937 Amidon Dr Spring, TX	1.0	1.0	605	$890	$1.47	44d	1	0.70mi
8100 Cypresswood Dr Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,580	$1.75	2d	20	0.81mi
6131 Louetta Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,352	$1.44	22d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $231 · $2,772/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-25
   listed $98,500 Active 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   Great investment property opportunity. ROI 10% after property taxes and $231 monthly HOA dues. Downstairs 2 bedroom 2 bath 988 sq ft condominium. Fully renovated in 2022. Currently leased at $1150 per month with potential to increase rent to $1325. Primary bedroom has attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Conveniently located near schools, grocery stores, banking and shopping. Owner moving.

2. 2014-09-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,555 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,555
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − HOA: −$2,772
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable loss: −$126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30
• After-tax cash flow: $1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2014-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,555 · +21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.