Birch | Trinity Ranch Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,283 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

$53/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is designed with you in mind. A thoughtful layout creates an easy flow from room to room, offering both comfort and convenience for everyday life. At the heart of the home, the modern kitchen features ample countertop space, making meal prep, homework time, and casual gatherings feel effortless. It opens naturally into the main living areas, creating a warm setting for family dinners, movie nights, and time spent together. The three bedrooms provide flexibility for a growing family, guest space, or a home office, while two full bathrooms help make busy mornings run more smoothly. The single-story design adds to the home's appeal, offering easy access and a practical layout that works well for all stages of life. With its innovation design, comfortable living spaces, and functional modern kitchen, this home offers the kind of setting where daily routines feel easier and lasting memories are made.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen
• Airy great room

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• AIRY GREAT ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,292.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-547 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,557 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.88%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,292
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Tolo Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	5mo	$279,900	$216	88
236 Hidalgo Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+0%)	9mo	$269,990	$210	73
250 Hidalgo Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+0%)	9mo	$269,990	$210	72
158 Two Bits Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	3mo	$259,490	$187	64
142 Two Bits Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	3mo	$260,990	$188	63
148 Two Bits Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$258,990	$187	63
126 Two Bits Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	2mo	$259,990	$187	63
137 Two Bits Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	3mo	$267,990	$193	62
153 Two Bits Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$261,990	$189	62
240 Hidalgo Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	10mo	$299,990	$216	59
102 Two Bits Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	11mo	$281,940	$203	54
223 Spirit St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,113 (-13%)	10mo	$257,904	$232	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $127,387
• Equity at exit: $267,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $403,133
• Equity at exit: $577,573

Cash invested: $83,242 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,559
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,459/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $218,167

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-341	-5% $-444	+0% $-547	+5% $-650	+10% $-752
Rent	-10% $-703	-5% $-625	+0% $-547	+5% $-469	+10% $-391
Rate	-1.0pp $-397	-0.5pp $-471	base $-547	+0.5pp $-624	+1.0pp $-702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,323
• Closing costs: $8,919
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	19d	1	0.31mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	0.75mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	0.80mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.90mi
110 S Main St #104 Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	45d	1	0.95mi
204 Hall St Unit A Elgin, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$1,195	$1.31	0d	1	1.17mi
200 Maple Ln Elgin, TX	2.0	2.0	891	$1,400	$1.57	45d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,990 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-01-17
    listed $274,990 Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    This inviting single-story 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is designed with you in mind. A thoughtful layout creates an easy flow from room to room, offering both comfort and convenience for everyday life. At the heart of the home, the modern kitchen features ample countertop space, making meal prep, homework time, and casual gatherings feel effortless. It opens naturally into the main living areas, creating a warm setting for family dinners, movie nights, and time spent together. The three bedrooms provide flexibility for a growing family, guest space, or a home office, while two full bathrooms help make busy mornings run more smoothly. The single-story design adds to the home's appeal, offering easy access and a practical layout that works well for all stages of life. With its innovation design, comfortable living spaces, and functional modern kitchen, this home offers the kind of setting where daily routines feel easier and lasting memories are made.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,653
• − Property taxes: −$4,459
• − Insurance: −$1,486
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$8,649
• Taxable loss: −$11,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $274,990 Zillow