485 Sheehan Way #2995 · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$165,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2026 Excellent condition $133/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.8

Listing remarks

Brand New Beautiful 2-bedroom, 2-bath home by Champion Homes, located in a beautiful 55+ community. This home features a bright and inviting open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers comfort and convenience with a walk-in shower, while the second bedroom and bath provide ample space for guests. Both bedrooms are generously sized, creating a comfortable and functional layout. Enjoy added outdoor living with a relaxing lanai ideal for morning coffee or evening unwinding as well as a convenient storage shed for all your extras.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Relaxing lanai
• Storage shed

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• RELAXING LANAI
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-812/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Villages Elementary of Lady Lake School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 761 students, 61% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 837 students, 65% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,648 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,753
• List price: $165,995
• Delta: -0.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 Ann Ave	1.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	9mo	$80,000	$64	57
615 Tracy Dr	1.22mi	2/2.0	1,270 (+2%)	6mo	$197,500	$156	57
1003 Matthew Ave	1.25mi	2/2.0	1,191 (-5%)	2mo	$203,000	$170	56
724 Jason Dr	1.50mi	2/2.0	1,312 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$137	56
605 Rainbow Blvd	1.37mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-8%)	1mo	$176,000	$154	50
304 Ivanhoe Cir	1.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (-6%)	0mo	$135,000	$116	49
219 W Mcclendon St	0.92mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,290 (+3%)	4mo	$195,000	$151	49
524 Bonita Dr	1.34mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-8%)	6mo	$176,000	$154	46
301 Woodland Trl	1.31mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	9mo	$217,500	$162	44
510 Bonita Dr	1.28mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-17%)	1mo	$100,000	$96	39
742 Cortez Ave	1.44mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+23%)	6mo	$300,000	$195	35
713 Sharon Dr	1.44mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-19%)	8mo	$197,000	$195	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-29,755
• Equity at exit: $24,750

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,378
• Equity at exit: $14,352

Cash invested: $46,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $159,995 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 822
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$207 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $156,208

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-10	+0% $-68	+5% $-125	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-122	+0% $-68	+5% $-14	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-25	base $-68	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,499
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Magnolia Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1170	$1,899	$1.62	7d	1	0.41mi
224 W McClendon St Lady Lake, FL	2.0	1.0	877	$1,500	$1.71	119d	1	0.94mi
423 Highway 466 Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1172	$1,669	$1.42	0d	24	0.98mi
508 Tarrson Blvd Unit 1525263P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,262	$1.25	108d	1	0.99mi
109 Clay Ave S Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	42d	1	1.01mi
367 Sunny Oaks Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1265	$1,296	$1.02	0d	29	1.23mi
715 Hudson Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,700	$1.94	119d	1	1.27mi
323 Griffin View Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	9d	1	1.35mi
409 Bay Oak Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,910	$1.38	88d	1	1.37mi
1222 Palmetto Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	62d	1	1.38mi
509 Loma Paseo Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,250	$1.54	9d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,995 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,995 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,995 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,995 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,995 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,995 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,995 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,995 Active 29 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,298
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable loss: −$3,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$882
• After-tax cash flow: $70/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new 2-bedroom, 2-bath home by Champion Homes is in excellent condition with a modern and inviting open floor plan. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and improve home value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary The Villages Elementary Of Lady Lake School B FL #608/2,144 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Carver Middle School F FL #353/571 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Leesburg High School F FL #464/667 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 386,640 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B