2309 Storey Ave · Midland, TX 79701

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1950 8,494 sqft lot $53/sqft · 18% below area Est $85k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity! This property is severely fire-damaged and being sold as-is so it will require substantial repairs before it will be habitable, but this is a fantastic opportunity for anyone willing to put in the effort!

Key facts

• 8,494 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.48%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,314
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -18.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $43,214
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $96,987
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,184/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2406 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1620	$2,500	$1.54	43d	1	0.18mi
705 Ainslee St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	20d	1	0.19mi
2805 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,400	$2.04	20d	1	0.43mi
2901 W Louisiana Ave Unit 3 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,090	$1.18	43d	1	0.49mi
2929 W Kansas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.51mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 213 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	43d	1	0.52mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 216 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,050	$1.11	43d	1	0.52mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 221 Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	43d	1	0.52mi
2929 W Kansas Ave Unit 317 Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.52mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	43d	1	0.53mi
1511 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,500	$1.44	43d	1	0.57mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	13d	1	0.57mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 101 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	43d	1	0.57mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	43d	1	0.57mi
3007 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,079	$1.17	20d	1	0.61mi
1402 W Tennessee Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,500	$2.38	43d	1	0.66mi
2704 Delano Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,900	$1.56	44d	1	0.72mi
3105 Barkley Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,350	$1.36	13d	1	0.83mi
2812 Mariana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,750	$1.21	43d	1	0.83mi
3100 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	43d	1	0.87mi
1002 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1472	$2,500	$1.70	43d	1	0.89mi
1707 College Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1760	$1,900	$1.08	20d	1	0.96mi
2111 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	981	$1,400	$1.43	20d	1	1.03mi
1807 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,800	$1.65	20d	1	1.03mi
3311 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	13d	1	1.04mi
2705 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	20d	1	1.14mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	20d	1	1.14mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	43d	1	1.14mi
1513 Club Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1502	$2,300	$1.53	20d	1	1.16mi
1101 N Carrizo St Unit 6 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	915	$1,500	$1.64	13d	1	1.21mi
3403 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$2,000	$1.36	13d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   Great opportunity! This property is severely fire-damaged and being sold as-is so it will require substantial repairs before it will be habitable, but this is a fantastic opportunity for anyone willing to put in the effort!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $69,900 Active 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   Great opportunity! This property is severely fire-damaged and being sold as-is so it will require substantial repairs before it will be habitable, but this is a fantastic opportunity for anyone willing to put in the effort!

3. 2015-09-04
   soldstatus
4. 2008-09-03
   soldstatus
5. 2006-08-25
   soldstatus
6. 1974-09-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,184
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $10,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,554
• After-tax cash flow: $8,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $69,900 PBBOR
• 2015-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1974-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,184 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.