CUMBERLAND Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$308,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,859 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover new build homes for sale in Katy, TX, at Katy Reserve 50s! Boasting single-family floor plans with contemporary design and open-concept layouts, this exciting new community has a home for every lifestyle. Located in the top-rated Katy Independent School District, this neighborhood is near I-10 and I-99, the Katy Mills® Mall, and acclaimed healthcare facilities. Sugarland is about 25 miles away, and Houston is 30. We'd love to help you find your dream home here!

Key facts

• Near i-10
• Near i-99
• Katy reserve 50s

Tags

• NEW BUILD HOMES
• KATY RESERVE 50S
• NEAR I-10
• NEAR I-99
• NEAR KATY MILLS MALL
• 25 MILES TO SUGARLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $308,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $340,084.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $309k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,180 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,084
• List price: $308,990
• Delta: -9.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26222 Venus Trap Trl	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+8%)	1mo	$339,900	$169	76
26247 Venus Trap Trl	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-10%)	1mo	$289,900	$173	71
25307 Ashbourne Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-4%)	13mo	$299,995	$169	56
5023 Yellow Rays Trl	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,710 (-8%)	9mo	$299,900	$175	44
25302 Benroe St	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-9%)	19mo	$299,995	$177	44
5046 Bluebird Song Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (+2%)	22mo	$325,543	$171	39
5123 Bluebird Song Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,948 (+5%)	21mo	$319,319	$164	36
25514 Reign Wayman Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$176	36
4614 Dunston Manor St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (-10%)	17mo	$309,995	$185	36
4623 Padbury Manor Ct	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,130 (+15%)	9mo	$349,000	$164	35
25235 Benroe St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,124 (+14%)	20mo	$347,000	$163	33
5003 Bluebird Song Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (-14%)	21mo	$338,351	$212	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-52,741
• Equity at exit: $50,708

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-66,970
• Equity at exit: $29,404

Cash invested: $95,224 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,101/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,975

Max offer price $340,084

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,021
• Closing costs: $10,203
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5006 Sunway Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2550	$2,500	$0.98	43d	1	0.77mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.98mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	1d	25	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,990 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,990 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $308,990 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,990 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,990 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,990 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $308,990 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $308,990 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,990 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,990 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,990 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,990 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $323,990 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Discover inspired new homes in Katy, TX, at Katy Reserve! Boasting single-family floor plans with contemporary design and open-concept layouts, this exciting new community has a home for every lifestyle. Located in the top-rated Katy Independent School District, this neighborhood is near I-10 and I-99, the Katy Mills Mall, and acclaimed healthcare facilities. Sugar Land is about 25 miles away, and Houston is 30. We'd love to help you find your dream home here!

15. 2026-02-20
    listed $323,990 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Discover inspired new homes in Katy, TX, at Katy Reserve! Boasting single-family floor plans with contemporary design and open-concept layouts, this exciting new community has a home for every lifestyle. Located in the top-rated Katy Independent School District, this neighborhood is near I-10 and I-99, the Katy Mills Mall, and acclaimed healthcare facilities. Sugar Land is about 25 miles away, and Houston is 30. We'd love to help you find your dream home here!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,050
• − Property taxes: −$5,101
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,080
• − Management: −$3,080
• − Depreciation: −$9,893
• Taxable loss: −$3,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new build home in Katy, TX, is move-in ready with contemporary design and open-concept layouts. Located in the top-rated Katy Independent School District, it's conveniently situated near major highways, shopping, and healthcare facilities.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $323,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $323,990 Zillow