2039 Woodbridge Ln · Lakeland, FL 33813

$246,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom two bath block home. Fenced backyard, single garage with washer and dryer, hook ups, tile flooring, new paint, interior and exterior. Close to shopping schools and church. Nice area.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• New paint
• Single garage

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SINGLE GARAGE
• TILE FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,557 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,206
• Equity at exit: $36,814

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-50,519
• Equity at exit: $21,347

Cash invested: $69,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33813

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,047/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $242,012

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,725
• Closing costs: $7,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4282 Morton Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,900	$1.04	23d	1	0.61mi
2014 Charnes Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,050	$1.11	3d	1	0.69mi
2150 Lake Highland Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,840	$1.89	23d	1	0.72mi
3595 New Jersey Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,589	$1.36	3d	5	0.77mi
2330 Eastmeadows Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1821	$2,386	$1.31	14d	1	0.84mi
3520 Cleveland Heights Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	965	$1,829	$1.90	3d	17	1.15mi
3726 Cleveland Heights Blvd Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	876	$1,561	$1.78	3d	4	1.28mi
1509 Phyllis St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,660	$1.56	14d	1	1.42mi
2623 New Jersey Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	1647	$2,101	$1.28	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $246,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $246,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $246,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $246,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $246,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $246,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $246,900 Active
10. 2026-03-18
    historical $1,750
11. 2026-02-14
    listed $1,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,047 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,047 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,830
• − Property taxes: −$3,047
• − Insurance: −$1,234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$7,183
• Taxable loss: −$4,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,674
• Household income: $99,497
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 778.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.20%
• Current HPI: 296.1207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+14008.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $246,900 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-18 Rental Removed $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-02-14 Listed for Rent $1,750 TURBOTENANT

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,047 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.