420 Post Oak Rd · Wills Point, TX 75169

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,895 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1973 0.78 ac lot Est $366k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer Upper with Major Potential! Charming two-story home nestled on a beautiful . 78-acre wooded lot in a desirable neighborhood within the sought-after Wills Point Independent School District. This inviting property offers a warm and welcoming feel with rustic touches throughout, including wooden beam ceiling accents and a cozy brick fireplace flanked by built-ins in the spacious living room. The kitchen features an island, breakfast area, and stainless appliances including a dishwasher and electric range, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A large laundry area adds extra convenience and storage space. Repair is needed on the ceiling from a condensation line leak. New

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Cozy brick fireplace
• Kitchen island

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• WOODED LOT
• WOODEN BEAM CEILING ACCENTS
• COZY BRICK FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, and 1031 Exchange
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; 1 covered parking space; Additional outside parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Entry on main level
• Construction: Built in 1973
• Exterior features: Lot in Lybrand subdivision; Approximately 0.78 acre lot; Property located next to Hiett Lybrand Funeral Home (directions available)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; Two dining areas; 7 total rooms; Fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($55k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.4% in Wills Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,174 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wills Point Pri (577 students, 67% FRL); Wills Point Middle (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 407 students, 68% FRL); Wills Point H S (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 803 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.87%
• DSCR: 4.78
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,735
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Henry Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,909 (+1%)	18mo	$350,000	$183	63
443 Private Road 7413	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,154 (+14%)	12mo	$415,000	$193	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $252,912
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.23×
• Total profit: $594,446
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,177/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,671
• Net cashflow: $4,553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,683	-5% $4,618	+0% $4,553	+5% $4,488	+10% $4,422
Rent	-10% $3,924	-5% $4,238	+0% $4,553	+5% $4,867	+10% $5,181
Rate	-1.0pp $4,668	-0.5pp $4,611	base $4,553	+0.5pp $4,493	+1.0pp $4,432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 N 4th St Wills Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,675	$1.24	45d	1	1.33mi
478 Westshore Dr Unit 1514797P Wills Point, TX	5.0	3.0	1560	$13,496	$8.65	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $229,900 Active
16. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus
17. 1986-09-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,177 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,177 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $95,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$5,177
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,638
• − Management: −$7,638
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $54,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,034
• After-tax cash flow: $41,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wills Point

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1174
• US rank: #20542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wills Point, TX
• City population: 15,744
• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $229,900 NTREIS
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,177 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.