182 Road 5101 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$120,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 0.45 ac lot $79/sqft · 52% below area Est $232k · 48% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Have the opportunity to finish a house out with your liking. Great for investor or someone looking for more freedom on finishes without the wait of framing and foundation. Dont let this opportunity pass you by reach out for more information.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 2019
• Listed 116 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood El (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.07%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,802
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -48.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1148 Road 5102	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (+4%)	5mo	$275,000	$173	46
47 Road 5103	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	4mo	$165,600	$119	46
260 Road 5107	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-11%)	22mo	$205,000	$152	35
44 County Road 5102 A	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,649 (+8%)	19mo	$286,990	$174	33
867 Road 5102	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-15%)	13mo	$249,990	$192	23
885 Road 5102	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,301 (-15%)	12mo	$254,990	$196	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,086
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $74,054
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 51.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,000 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,316/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,117

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $624	+0% $590	+5% $556	+10% $522
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $516	+0% $590	+5% $664	+10% $737
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $621	base $590	+0.5pp $559	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1176 Road 5102 Cleveland, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	93d	1	0.74mi
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	71d	1	0.85mi
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	71d	1	0.88mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	93d	1	0.90mi
832 Road 5138 Unit A Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	0d	1	0.91mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,699	$1.00	0d	8	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (standard)
• Home design: Residential propertyOne-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2019Cement sidingMetal roofPillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11)Bedroom on the first floor (15 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (14 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: 4 total roomsCleared lot (yard area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-07-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
24. 2026-07-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
28. 2026-06-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
29. 2026-06-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
30. 2026-06-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-06-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-06-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
34. 2026-06-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
35. 2026-06-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
36. 2026-06-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
37. 2026-06-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
38. 2026-06-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
39. 2026-06-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
44. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
49. 2026-04-06
    listed $120,000 Active 241-char remark
50. 2025-10-31
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,316
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $5,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,620–$22,860 screening

This property is in good condition with recent exterior updates. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $70,000–$210,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — No roof visible in photos
• Major Hvac (hvac) — No HVAC unit visible in photos
• Major Windows (windows) — No windows visible in photos
• Major Electrical (electrical) — No electrical panel visible in photos
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — No plumbing fixtures visible in photos
• Major Exterior (exterior) — No exterior walls or siding visible in photos
• Major Other — No other components visible in photos

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental Replace the HVAC filters — Fresh filters can improve air quality and tenant satisfaction in rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cottonwood El F TX #3,470/4,322 Nat'l #32,906/41,679 Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (standard)
• Home design: Residential propertyOne-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2019Cement sidingMetal roofPillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11)Bedroom on the first floor (15 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (14 x 12)Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: 4 total roomsCleared lot (yard area)

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $115,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $128,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,316 · +48.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.