4404 Raiders Way #81 · Modesto, CA 95355

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $100k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained home located in the desirable community of 4404 Raiders Way, Space 81 in Modesto. This inviting residence offers a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for everyday living. The interior features a bright living area, a practical kitchen with ample cabinet space, and well-sized bedrooms designed for comfort and convenience. Enjoy low-maintenance living with covered parking and access to community amenities, all while being centrally located near shopping, dining, schools, and major commuter routes. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an affordable home option, this property offers a great opportunity in an established neig

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Well maintained home
• Community amenities

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN
• COVERED PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse; Community playground; Community pool; Recreation facilities; Close to golf course

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 or more spaces)
• Utilities: 220 volts in kitchen; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide; Model 4403b
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch and patio; Front yard; Garden / play area; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Built-in oven; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Stone counters; 220V outlet
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Family room; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry facility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $908 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.45%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,680
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4400 Spartans Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	6mo	$111,800	$97	88
1500 Held Dr #137	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	7mo	$60,000	$55	81
1500 Held Dr #90	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,129 (+1%)	6mo	$121,900	$108	81
1500 Held Dr #124	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	11mo	$84,900	$74	76
4405 S Raiders Way #91	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+8%)	22mo	$177,000	$147	68
1517 Panthers Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	11mo	$111,000	$89	67
4404 Trojans Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+10%)	20mo	$208,000	$169	65
1500 Held Dr #83	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	20mo	$91,000	$79	64
1500 Held Dr #135	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+11%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $34,707
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $90,027
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $908

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Cedar Creek Dr #1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,999	$1.88	13d	1	0.65mi
1500 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,900	$2.32	13d	7	1.27mi
1401 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,962	$2.33	13d	4	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    status Active
17. 2026-05-05
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-16
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $8,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-05 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-16 Listed $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR