16236 305th Ave · Erie, MN 56501

$354,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1988 5.00 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This four-bedroom, two-bath home is situated on a beautiful five-acre wooded lot. The main level features a living room, a dining room, and a kitchen with ample cabinetry that opens onto a deck perfect for entertaining or watching local wildlife. There are also two bedrooms and a full bath on this floor. The lower level offers two additional bedrooms, a large family room, and a dedicated office nook. Additional features include an insulated garage with a back three-season room that is wired for a hot tub. The five-acre property is mostly wooded but includes a cleared area on the west side for future use. The owners are motivated and will consider all reasonable offers. Additionally, the seller is willing to consider a flooring or paint allowance for the new owners.

Key facts

• Three season room
• 5 acre wooded lot
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• 5 ACRE WOODED LOT
• DIRECT ACCESS TO DECK
• INSULATED ATTACHED GARAGE
• THREE SEASON ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL MIX OF MATURE WOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $331k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Detroit Lakes Public School District (town): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #155 of 301 in MN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 156 units permitted in Becker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Becker County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $331,118 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-25,548
• Equity at exit: $52,917

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $18,465
• Equity at exit: $30,685

Cash invested: $99,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56501

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $354,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,725
• Closing costs: $10,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $354,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $354,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $354,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $354,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $354,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $354,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $354,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $354,900 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $355,000 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    This four-bedroom, two-bath home is situated on a beautiful five-acre wooded lot. The main level features a living room, a dining room, and a kitchen with ample cabinetry that opens onto a deck perfect for entertaining or watching local wildlife. There are also two bedrooms and a full bath on this floor. The lower level offers two additional bedrooms, a large family room, and a dedicated office nook. Additional features include an insulated garage with a back three-season room that is wired for a hot tub. The five-acre property is mostly wooded but includes a cleared area on the west side for future use. The owners are motivated and will consider all reasonable offers. Additionally, the seller is willing to consider a flooring or paint allowance for the new owners.

16. 2026-02-11
    listed $365,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    This four-bedroom, two-bath home is situated on a beautiful five-acre wooded lot. The main level features a living room, a dining room, and a kitchen with ample cabinetry that opens onto a deck perfect for entertaining or watching local wildlife. There are also two bedrooms and a full bath on this floor. The lower level offers two additional bedrooms, a large family room, and a dedicated office nook. Additional features include an insulated garage with a back three-season room that is wired for a hot tub. The five-acre property is mostly wooded but includes a cleared area on the west side for future use. The owners are motivated and will consider all reasonable offers. Additionally, the seller is willing to consider a flooring or paint allowance for the new owners.

17. 2025-12-26
    historical
18. 2025-04-25
    listed $365,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,372/yr (+$114/mo · 111.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,880
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,179
• − Management: −$3,179
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable income: $168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $6,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Lakes Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2710230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $50,571
• Composite: 40.33/100
• National rank: #3746
• State rank: #155 of 301 in MN

Livability — Erie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,239

Population outlook (Becker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,604 people
• By 2030: 35,095 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 35,691 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 35,869 · +3.7%
• By 2075: 36,103 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 32,798 · -5.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 25% Scottish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Becker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.7% · R 65.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+14.6 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.40%
• Current HPI: 217.4973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $355,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $365,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listed $365,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+43.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.