10206 Evelyn · California City, CA 93505

$318,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2007 9,938 sqft lot Est $350k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

beautifully maintained single-story home nestled in the growing community of California City. This spacious residence offers comfortable living space with 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The inviting floor plan features abundant natural light, a cozy living room with fireplace, tile flooring, and a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace. Situated on a large lot, the backyard provides endless possibilities for outdoor gatherings, gardening, RV parking, or creating your own desert retreat. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and easy access to major roadways, this home combines small-town charm with modern comfort. Whether you are a first-time buyer, growing family, or investor, this property is an incredible opportunity to enjoy the peaceful lifestyle and wide-open spaces that California City has to offer.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Cozy living room
• Rv parking

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LARGE LOT
• RV PARKING
• DESERT RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-398 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,165 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,866
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9925 Irene Ave	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-1%)	0mo	$280,000	$160	77
21601 Adler	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+5%)	1mo	$360,000	$194	76
21631 Sheridan Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+1%)	4mo	$389,000	$217	72
9840 Margery Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-8%)	2mo	$275,000	$169	68
21851 101st St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+11%)	4mo	$209,000	$107	67
9701 Susan Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,753 (-1%)	3mo	$345,000	$197	67
10549 Camille Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-15%)	1mo	$319,000	$212	56
21420 Reed Pl	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,858 (+5%)	1mo	$379,900	$204	54
9644 Raymond Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (-3%)	4mo	$360,000	$209	53
9629 Mendiburu Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+8%)	3mo	$410,000	$216	50
21745 Upton Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-14%)	2mo	$300,000	$198	42
9709 Susan Ave	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,994 (+13%)	3mo	$390,000	$196	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $153,242
• Equity at exit: $286,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $483,328
• Equity at exit: $617,804

Cash invested: $89,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,573/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $247,677

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,500
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10193 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	14d	1	0.08mi
21319 Conklin Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	43d	1	0.56mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	23d	1	0.68mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	0.71mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	3d	1	0.73mi
21398 Baldwin Ln California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	2d	1	0.87mi
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	3d	1	1.24mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $318,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $318,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $318,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $318,000 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    beautifully maintained single-story home nestled in the growing community of California City. This spacious residence offers comfortable living space with 3 generously sized bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfectly designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The inviting floor plan features abundant natural light, a cozy living room with fireplace, tile flooring, and a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace. Situated on a large lot, the backyard provides endless possibilities for outdoor gatherings, gardening, RV parking, or creating your own desert retreat. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and easy access to major roadways, this home combines small-town charm with modern comfort. Whether you are a first-time buyer, growing family, or investor, this property is an incredible opportunity to enjoy the peaceful lifestyle and wide-open spaces that California City has to offer.

17. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $259,000 Closed 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Custom 3 bedroom/2.5 bath home, elegant mahogany oval three panel entry door, tile flooring throughout living area, carpet and laminate in bedrooms, master bedroom has large walk in closet and french doors leading to back yard, spacious master bath has jetted tub, separate shower, granite double sink vanity with custom tile work, granite countertops in kitchen with breakfast bar, walk in pantry, open living room with cozy fireplace elegant archways, with custom crown molding, spacious open floor plan, ceiling fans throughout, recessed lighting in kitchen, living room, master bedroom and master bath, on natural gas. Great opportunity -- Don't miss this one!

18. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $259,000 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Custom 3 bedroom/2.5 bath home, elegant mahogany oval three panel entry door, tile flooring throughout living area, carpet and laminate in bedrooms, master bedroom has large walk in closet and french doors leading to back yard, spacious master bath has jetted tub, separate shower, granite double sink vanity with custom tile work, granite countertops in kitchen with breakfast bar, walk in pantry, open living room with cozy fireplace elegant archways, with custom crown molding, spacious open floor plan, ceiling fans throughout, recessed lighting in kitchen, living room, master bedroom and master bath, on natural gas. Great opportunity -- Don't miss this one!

19. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $259,000

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Custom 3 bedroom/2.5 bath home, elegant mahogany oval three panel entry door, tile flooring throughout living area, carpet and laminate in bedrooms, master bedroom has large walk in closet and french doors leading to back yard, spacious master bath has jetted tub, separate shower, granite double sink vanity with custom tile work, granite countertops in kitchen with breakfast bar, walk in pantry, open living room with cozy fireplace elegant archways, with custom crown molding, spacious open floor plan, ceiling fans throughout, recessed lighting in kitchen, living room, master bedroom and master bath, on natural gas. Great opportunity -- Don't miss this one!

20. 2021-01-05
    status Pending Sale
21. 2020-12-31
    listed $259,000 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Custom 3 bedroom/2.5 bath home, elegant mahogany oval three panel entry door, tile flooring throughout living area, carpet and laminate in bedrooms, master bedroom has large walk in closet and french doors leading to back yard, spacious master bath has jetted tub, separate shower, granite double sink vanity with custom tile work, granite countertops in kitchen with breakfast bar, walk in pantry, open living room with cozy fireplace elegant archways, with custom crown molding, spacious open floor plan, ceiling fans throughout, recessed lighting in kitchen, living room, master bedroom and master bath, on natural gas. Great opportunity -- Don't miss this one!

22. 2020-12-31
    listed $259,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Custom 3 bedroom/2.5 bath home, elegant mahogany oval three panel entry door, tile flooring throughout living area, carpet and laminate in bedrooms, master bedroom has large walk in closet and french doors leading to back yard, spacious master bath has jetted tub, separate shower, granite double sink vanity with custom tile work, granite countertops in kitchen with breakfast bar, walk in pantry, open living room with cozy fireplace elegant archways, with custom crown molding, spacious open floor plan, ceiling fans throughout, recessed lighting in kitchen, living room, master bedroom and master bath, on natural gas. Great opportunity -- Don't miss this one!

23. 2019-10-15
    historical
24. 2019-08-07
    listed $212,000 Active
25. 2015-03-17
    historical
26. 2014-03-13
    soldstatus $120,000
27. 2013-10-08
    listed $124,900
28. 2012-09-20
    soldstatus $57,000
29. 2012-08-30
    soldstatus $58,000
30. 2011-05-01
    historical
31. 2011-01-07
    listed $75,000
32. 2007-07-05
    listed $260,000
33. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus $46,500
34. 1993-09-23
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,813
• − Property taxes: −$3,573
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$10,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1887.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $318,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-25 Sold (MLS) $259,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-25 Sold (MLS) $259,000 AVMLS
• 2021-01-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-12-31 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2020-12-31 Listed $259,000 AVMLS
• 2019-10-15 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2019-08-07 Listed $212,000 AVMLS
• 2015-03-17 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2014-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-08 Listed $124,900 AVMLS
• 2012-09-20 Sold (MLS) $57,000 CRMLS
• 2012-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-01-07 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2007-07-05 Listed $260,000 AVMLS
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1993-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,573 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.