Is 613 Hilltop Dr in Tool, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B+ with a 12.1% cap rate and $427/mo modeled cash flow at a $88,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 613 Hilltop Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 12.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,237/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B+ Composite 76.8

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
1% rule +8.9/10.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$88,900

613 Hilltop Dr · Tool, TX 75143

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition 10,149 sqft lot $118/sqft · 41% below area Est $151k · 41% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

INVESTORS AND AFFORDABLE OPPORTUNITY seekers. Check this home out in the laid-back waterfront community of Cedar Crest Shores on beautiful Cedar Creek Lake! POSSIBLE OWNER FINANCING for this 2 BEDROOM 1 BATHROOM cabin built in 1971 on 2 LOTS totaling approximately 0.23 ACRES. Did you hear that? 2 Lots! almost a quarter of an acre! 99 feet on the road x 102 feet deep. This will give you elbow room to enjoy the outdoors without a neighbor on top of you. Features include an open living concept with a dine in kitchen and serving bar, an oversized utility room on the back of the house, and 2 oversized bedrooms, one full-size bathroom.

Key facts

Covered front porch
Picnic area
Fishing pier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.0% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Tool El (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 267 students, 80% FRL); Malakoff Middle (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 323 students, 72% FRL); Malakoff H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 378 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 165d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $89k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,232 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.39% ✓
Cap rate: 12.06%
Cash-on-cash: 20.60%
DSCR: 1.92
GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $150,921
List price: $88,900
Delta: -41.10%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Westwind Rd	0.06mi	2/1.0	792 (+5%)	6mo	$45,000	$57	83
709 Westwind	0.05mi	2/1.0	768 (+2%)	18mo	$219,500	$286	79
601 Hilltop Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	780 (+4%)	25mo	$169,000	$217	72
618 Cedarcrest Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	572 (-24%)	30mo	$22,500	$39	50
9460 County Road 2403	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-4%)	7mo	$125,000	$174	48
817 Crown Dr	0.26mi	2/1.5	840 (+12%)	32mo	$44,500	$53	46
518 Buffalo Ln	0.47mi	1/1.0 (-1)	648 (-14%)	8mo	$149,900	$231	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 12.9%
Equity multiple: 1.51×
Total profit: $12,792
Equity at exit: $13,255

10-year hold

IRR: 21.8%
Equity multiple: 2.85×
Total profit: $46,102
Equity at exit: $7,686

Cash invested: $24,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 4 active
Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $179,950 ($196/sqft)
Median days on market: 232 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +2.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75143

Home prices YoY: -11.4%
Active inventory: 653
Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,237 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$466
Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
Insurance: −$37
HOA: −$10
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $696

Max offer price $88,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $453	+0% $427	+5% $402	+10% $377
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $378	+0% $427	+5% $476	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $472	-0.5pp $450	base $427	+0.5pp $404	+1.0pp $381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $22,225
Closing costs: $2,667
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1012 Whispering Springs Dr Tool, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$1,290	$1.43	184d	1	0.43mi
1305 N Tool Dr Unit 14 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$1,300	$2.24	165d	1	0.47mi
1305 N Tool Dr Unit 8 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$1,175	$2.03	152d	1	0.47mi
1305 N Tool Dr Unit 1 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$1,175	$2.03	0d	1	0.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Municipal Utility District serves the propertyDeed restrictions apply
Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, or Owner Will Carry
HOA & community: Mandatory associationAnnual association fee of $120Association provides full use of facilitiesCommunity amenities include boat ramp, fishing, lake access, and park

Exterior

Parking: 1 covered/carport spaceUnpaved parking
Utilities: Co-op electric availableElectricity connectedIndividual water meterMUD waterSeptic systemWater heater listed as a green energy-efficient feature
Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyDeed-restricted subdivision
Construction: Built in 1971Composition roofPillar/post/pier foundation
Exterior features: Covered porchCovered patio/porchStorage structure on the propertyFew treesInterior lot in a subdivision

Interior

Kitchen: Electric range
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
Flooring: Wood flooring
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)Window unit(s) for coolingOther heating
Interior features: Eat-in kitchenHigh-speed internet availableWindow coveringsOne living areaOne dining areaTotal of 4 rooms
Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area

HOA detail $10/mo · $120/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-10-28

days on market $88,900 Active 170 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $88,900 Active 169 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $88,900 Active 168 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $88,900 Active 167 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $88,900 Active 166 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $88,900 Active 165 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $88,900 Active 164 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $88,900 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $88,900 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $88,900 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $88,900 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $88,900 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $88,900 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $88,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $88,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $88,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $88,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $88,900 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $88,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $88,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $88,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-08

price $88,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $99,500 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $99,500 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $99,500 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $99,500 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $99,500 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $99,500 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $99,500 Active 143 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $99,500 Active 142 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $99,500 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $99,500 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $99,500 Active 139 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $99,500 Active 138 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $99,500 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $99,500 Active 136 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $99,500 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $99,500 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $99,500 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $99,500 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $99,500 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $99,500 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $99,500 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $99,500 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $99,500 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $99,500 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $99,500 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $99,500 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $99,500 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $99,500 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $442 · $37/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
Expected delta: +$1,184/yr (+$99/mo · 267.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $14,847
− Mortgage interest: −$4,980
− Property taxes: −$442
− Insurance: −$444
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
− Management: −$1,188
− HOA: −$120
− Depreciation: −$2,586
Taxable income: $3,899

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$936
After-tax cash flow: $4,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $18,800–$33,840 screening

This 1971 single-family home on a 0.23-acre lot in Cedar Crest Shores, TX, requires significant repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, and interior walls. While the property offers a peaceful waterfront setting, it needs substantial work to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

Major roof — The satellite image suggests potential roof damage.
Moderate exterior siding — The siding is visibly weathered and needs repainting or replacement.
Major flooring — The flooring appears old and possibly damaged, requiring replacement or repair.
Major interior walls — The walls show significant wear and need repainting or replacement.
Minor landscaping — The overgrown landscaping could be trimmed and improved with minimal effort.

Value-add opportunities

Both painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both landscaping and trimming — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
Both roof repair or replacement — A new roof will protect the home from water damage and improve its overall condition. ↑
Both flooring replacement — New flooring will make the home more comfortable and attractive, both for resale and rental. ↑
Both interior wall repairs and repainting — Fresh paint and repairs will make the interior look new and improve the home's overall condition. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tool El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Malakoff Middle C TX #326/1,662 Nat'l #3,276/14,009 High Malakoff H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Malakoff ISD
NCES district ID: 4828780
Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $38,970
Composite: 42.54/100
National rank: #3200
State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Tool

Score: 66/100
State rank: #651
US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Tool, TX
County: Kaufman · 80,471 people
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,676
Household income: $68,996
Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 80,471 people
By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
Current HPI: 332.57
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+298.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-10 Listed $99,500 NTREIS
2025-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2019-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
1995-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $442 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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