613 Hilltop Dr · Tool, TX 75143

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1971 10,149 sqft lot $132/sqft · 34% below area Est $150k · 34% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE OPPORTUNITY in the laid-back waterfront community of Cedar Crest Shores on beautiful Cedar Creek Lake! This 2 BEDROOM 1 BATHROOM cabin built in 1971 sits on 2 LOTS totaling approximately 0.23 ACRES and offers tons of potential for a weekend getaway, rental investment, or full-time lake retreat. Features include a spacious covered front porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful setting beneath mature shade trees. Home is ready for your personal updates and vision. Located in a desirable lake neighborhood with access to a community boat launch, fishing pier, and picnic area for enjoying the lake lifestyle. Conveniently located near restaurants, shopping, and entertainmen

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Picnic area
• Fishing pier

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH
• FISHING PIER
• PICNIC AREA
• WALKING PATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District serves the property; Deed restrictions apply
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, or Owner Will Carry
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $120; Association provides full use of facilities; Community amenities include boat ramp, fishing, lake access, and park

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered/carport space; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Co-op electric available; Electricity connected; Individual water meter; MUD water; Septic system; Water heater listed as a green energy-efficient feature
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Deed-restricted subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1971; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Storage structure on the property; Few trees; Interior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s) for cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.8% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tool El (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 267 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 61% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $100k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.82%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,900
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -33.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Westwind Rd	0.06mi	2/1.0	792 (+5%)	1mo	$45,000	$57	87
709 Westwind	0.05mi	2/1.0	768 (+2%)	14mo	$219,500	$286	83
601 Hilltop Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	780 (+4%)	21mo	$169,000	$217	75
9460 County Road 2403	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-4%)	3mo	$125,000	$174	51
518 Buffalo Ln	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	648 (-14%)	3mo	$149,900	$231	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $7,244
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $36,317
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1012 Whispering Springs Dr Tool, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$1,290	$1.43	43d	1	0.43mi
1305 N Tool Dr Unit 14 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$1,300	$2.24	24d	1	0.47mi
1305 N Tool Dr Unit 1 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$1,175	$2.03	24d	1	0.47mi
1305 N Tool Dr Unit 8 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$1,175	$2.03	11d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    listed $99,500 Active 909-char remark
16. 2025-10-27
    soldstatus
17. 2019-01-22
    soldstatus
18. 1995-12-20
    soldstatus $25,000
19. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $442 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,378/yr (+$115/mo · 311.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $2,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $3,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tool

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #651
• US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tool, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+298.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $442 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.