1328 Capecastle Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$319,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,084 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,880 sqft lot Est $340k · 6% under $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21303916 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Sep 2026 completion! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

Key facts

• 5,880 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price indicated (financial listing data available)
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $65 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Central air; Heating provided
• Home design: Spec new construction (Plan: Magnolia)
• Construction: No construction material, roof, foundation, or year built provided
• Exterior features: Property located at 1328 Capecastle Ln, Forney TX 75126

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type listed as Other); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (2,084 sq ft living area noted elsewhere)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $272,724 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,692
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2235 Willowbank Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (-5%)	0mo	$317,990	$160	79
1165 Nora Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,171 (+4%)	0mo	$399,900	$184	78
1859 Balfour Bnd	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-10%)	1mo	$304,990	$163	76
1861 Balfour Bnd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (-8%)	1mo	$309,990	$162	74
2929 Soaring Hills Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,188 (+5%)	1mo	$374,900	$171	74
1867 Balfour Bnd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (-9%)	0mo	$309,990	$164	73
1181 Nora Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,318 (+11%)	0mo	$329,990	$142	72
2019 Brewers Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-5%)	1mo	$352,900	$178	67
1184 Nora Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-14%)	1mo	$312,990	$175	67
1290 Binfield Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (-9%)	0mo	$294,990	$155	54
1017 Knoxbridge Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,296 (+10%)	1mo	$350,000	$152	51
2122 Winsbury Way	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-15%)	0mo	$285,000	$161	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-63,801
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-82,189
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $302,357

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $-11	+0% $-122	+5% $-232	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-337	-5% $-230	+0% $-122	+5% $-14	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-40	base $-122	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2029 Dovedale Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.17mi
1806 Balfour Bnd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,600	$1.31	26d	1	0.23mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.38mi
2116 Sunnymede Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2854	$3,300	$1.16	22d	1	0.50mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	0.52mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	0d	1	0.53mi
1128 Queensdown Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,999	$1.43	45d	1	0.53mi
2136 Sunnymede Dr Forney, TX	4.0	4.0	2805	$3,200	$1.14	3d	1	0.56mi
1120 Canterbury Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2450	$2,950	$1.20	14d	1	0.65mi
1410 Crossford Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,650	$0.98	3d	1	0.66mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.74mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	0.74mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	19d	1	0.76mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	6d	1	0.76mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.80mi
2287 Cliff Springs Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	0.81mi
2003 Pine Stone Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	0.81mi
1728 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	20d	1	0.82mi
1729 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.83mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	18d	1	0.83mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	0.83mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.84mi
1158 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,200	$1.24	0d	1	0.84mi
1147 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,200	$1.45	0d	1	0.85mi
1947 Aves Glen Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,195	$1.56	26d	1	0.86mi
1355 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,200	$1.51	45d	1	0.89mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.90mi
1633 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,500	$1.01	22d	1	0.91mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	3d	1	0.92mi
1636 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,250	$1.12	45d	1	0.94mi
1650 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1559	$1,995	$1.28	26d	1	0.94mi
1425 Rolling Fox Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2886	$3,300	$1.14	0d	1	0.96mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	0d	1	0.96mi
1718 Cecil Crest Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,395	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
1631 Rosy Finch Dr Heath, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,600	$1.56	18d	1	0.99mi
2330 Aspen Hill Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,795	$1.20	20d	1	1.00mi
1405 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	8d	1	1.00mi
1625 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,095	$1.26	45d	1	1.01mi
2111 River Pine Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,950	$1.30	45d	1	1.02mi
1622 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,195	$1.32	45d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 586-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listing id $319,990 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 513-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $319,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,618
• − Management: −$2,618
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$6,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior, landscaping improvements, new flooring in bathrooms, and new kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B