12789 Manchester Dr · Chesterland, OH 44026

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1956 1.00 ac lot $189/sqft · 8% below area Est $382k · 8% under $106/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contemporary Ranch on beautiful corner lot. well maintained. Living room with vaulted ceiling and wall of glass windows to enjoy. Landscaped yard. Patio 30x14.

Key facts

• New fencing
• New garage doors
• New front entry door

Tags

• KITCHEN AND BATH RENOVATIONS
• NEW GARAGE DOORS
• NEW FRONT ENTRY DOOR
• SOLID WOOD DOORS
• NEW FENCING
• NEW SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Manchester Farms homeowners association; Quarterly HOA fee of $318 (includes water)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Shared well
• Home design: Single-story home; Primary bedroom on the main level; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Outbuilding / shed(s) for storage; Partial privacy fencing; Lot is approximately 1 acre; South-facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Jetted tub; Double-pane windows; Updated/remodeled condition
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.9% in Chesterland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#58 in OH, #835 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• West Geauga Local (rural): math 83% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #28 of 656 in OH (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 220 units permitted in Geauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Geauga County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $333,930 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,853
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -8.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12789 Manchester Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,856 (0%)	1mo	$439,562	$237	99
7505 Devon Ln	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,872 (+1%)	23mo	$300,000	$160	74
12750 Manchester Dr	0.09mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,648 (-11%)	7mo	$259,900	$158	64
12845 Morning Glory Trl	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,098 (+13%)	2mo	$380,000	$181	59
7526 Avon Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (-5%)	21mo	$376,000	$214	59
7063 Old Mill Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+7%)	7mo	$530,000	$268	49
13034 Woodcrest Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,022 (+9%)	23mo	$330,000	$163	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-37,685
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-8,307
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44026

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,024/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,961

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 2090-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   status Active 2090-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $350,000 Active 2090-char remark
4. 2015-02-02
   soldstatus $128,500 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Contemporary Ranch on beautiful corner lot. well maintained. Living room with vaulted ceiling and wall of glass windows to enjoy. Landscaped yard. Patio 30x14.

5. 2015-01-29
   soldstatus $128,500
6. 2014-09-24
   historical 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Contemporary Ranch on beautiful corner lot. well maintained. Living room with vaulted ceiling and wall of glass windows to enjoy. Landscaped yard. Patio 30x14.

7. 2014-08-15
   listed $139,900 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Contemporary Ranch on beautiful corner lot. well maintained. Living room with vaulted ceiling and wall of glass windows to enjoy. Landscaped yard. Patio 30x14.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,242 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,218/yr (+$101/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,024
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,206
• − Management: −$3,206
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$2,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $4,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Geauga Local
• NCES district ID: 3904722
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,759
• Composite: 73.94/100
• National rank: #166
• State rank: #28 of 656 in OH

Livability — Chesterland

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #835

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesterland, OH
• County: Geauga · 90,510 people
• City population: 10,722
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 10,722
• Household income: $106,740
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.9

Population outlook (Geauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,919 people
• By 2030: 94,804 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 92,641 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 88,198 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 79,080 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 60,856 · -35.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geauga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.5% · R 61.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.61%
• Current HPI: 200.0173
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+214.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $439,600 Public Records
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $439,562 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-30 Listed $350,000 MLSNOW
• 2015-02-02 Sold (MLS) $128,500 MLSNOW
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2014-09-24 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2014-08-15 Listed $139,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,024 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.