16512 N Conda Way · Rawlings, MD 21557

$170,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1972 0.41 ac lot $62/sqft · 41% below area Est $287k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• Driveway
• Full basement
• 0.41-acre corner lot

Tags

• 0.41-ACRE CORNER LOT
• FULL BASEMENT
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-496/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#457 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $170k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,296 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,737
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -40.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16805 Mountain Club Ave	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,620 (-4%)	6mo	$400,000	$153	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $63,728
• Equity at exit: $125,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $186,841
• Equity at exit: $244,915

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21557

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,532/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $162,704

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $170,000 Pending 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $170,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $170,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $170,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-05-18
   price $170,000 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

10. 2026-04-21
    status Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

11. 2026-04-20
    historical 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

12. 2026-04-06
    price $180,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

13. 2026-02-20
    price $190,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

14. 2026-01-21
    listed $200,000 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Nestled in the charming Rawlings Heights, this delightful split-level home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there's ample room for relaxation and privacy. The generous 0.41-acre corner lot provides a serene outdoor space, ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. The full basement, accessible from both inside and outside, presents endless possibilities for a home gym, workshop, or additional living area. Enjoy the convenience of off-street parking and a driveway, ensuring easy access for you and your guests. The limited view adds a touch of tranquility, making this home a peaceful retreat.

15. 2025-05-02
    historical
16. 2025-02-26
    price $175,000
17. 2025-02-23
    price $180,000
18. 2025-02-01
    listed $184,900 Active
19. 2025-01-20
    historical
20. 1990-11-13
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,532
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Rawlings

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #25722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rawlings, MD
• Population (ZIP): 1,323

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.66%
• Current HPI: 300.4628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $184,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-20 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,532 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.