509 Royal Oak · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 390 Days on market

Built 1969 0.35 ac lot $89/sqft · 33% below area Est $128k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your search for flexible Canyon Lake living ends at 509 Royal Oak! This .35-acre parcel features a comfortable 952 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath mobile home (full kitchen & living), an RV, a handy workshop, and an outhouse. Benefit from MINIMAL BUILDING RESTRICTIONS and the allowance of mobile homes. DOUBLE THE OPPORTUNITY! The adjoining .28-acre lot is also for sale. Purchase both to create a .63-acre haven with space to build, expand, or create a multi-dwelling setup. Ideal for investors, multi-generational living, or those craving space and freedom. Don't miss this unique package!

Key facts

• Space to build
• Multi dwelling setup
• Handy workshop

Tags

• COMFORTABLE MOBILE HOME
• HANDY WORKSHOP
• MINIMAL BUILDING RESTRICTIONS
• ALLOWANCE OF MOBILE HOMES
• SPACE TO BUILD
• MULTI DWELLING SETUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.76%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,745
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -33.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 Rambling	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-3%)	7mo	$115,000	$124	69
204 Dreamland Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-3%)	14mo	$100,000	$108	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $20,703
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $51,128
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $729

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Ridgerock Dr Unit 1 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	0.79mi
270 Ridgerock Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	44d	1	0.79mi
127 Quail Run St Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.86mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 381 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 380 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 379 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 376 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 375 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 374 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 373 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 372 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $85,000 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Your search for flexible Canyon Lake living ends at 509 Royal Oak! This .35-acre parcel features a comfortable 952 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath mobile home (full kitchen & living), an RV, a handy workshop, and an outhouse. Benefit from MINIMAL BUILDING RESTRICTIONS and the allowance of mobile homes. DOUBLE THE OPPORTUNITY! The adjoining .28-acre lot is also for sale. Purchase both to create a .63-acre haven with space to build, expand, or create a multi-dwelling setup. Ideal for investors, multi-generational living, or those craving space and freedom. Don't miss this unique package!

15. 2025-05-24
    listed $109,000 New 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Your search for flexible Canyon Lake living ends at 509 Royal Oak! This .35-acre parcel features a comfortable 952 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath mobile home (full kitchen & living), an RV, a handy workshop, and an outhouse. Benefit from MINIMAL BUILDING RESTRICTIONS and the allowance of mobile homes. DOUBLE THE OPPORTUNITY! The adjoining .28-acre lot is also for sale. Purchase both to create a .63-acre haven with space to build, expand, or create a multi-dwelling setup. Ideal for investors, multi-generational living, or those craving space and freedom. Don't miss this unique package!

16. 2023-08-09
    soldstatus
17. 2018-10-24
    historical
18. 2018-10-11
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2018-10-09
    status Pending
20. 2018-10-01
    status Pending with Option
21. 2018-10-01
    status Active Option
22. 2018-09-28
    historical
23. 2018-07-11
    listed $59,000 Active
24. 2018-05-31
    listed $59,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$421/yr (+$35/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $5,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $85,000 LERA
• 2025-05-24 Listed $109,000 LERA
• 2023-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-24 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-10-11 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-10-09 Pending — LERA
• 2018-10-01 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2018-10-01 Relisted — LERA
• 2018-09-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-07-11 Listed $59,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-05-31 Listed $59,000 LERA

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,134 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.