262 Birch Forest Ln · Boyd, TX 76023

$253,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,499 sqft lot $172/sqft · 13% below area Est $293k · 13% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New phase now selling! D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your home builder in the fabulous unique master planned community of Springhill South in Boyd. The single-story Baylor Floorplan, Elevation B, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet located directly off the bathroom. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top offer comfortable accommodations for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances all main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. This home is built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, along with a tank water heater for added convenience. Exterior highlights include a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, privacy fencing, and more. This home includes our AMERICA'S SMART HOME base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Community Pool, Cabana, Walking Paths, Park, basketball court.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• Oversized shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#185 in TX, #4,775 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #462 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boyd El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 478 students, 57% FRL); Boyd Middle (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 202 students, 48% FRL); Boyd H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 386 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,889 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,056
• List price: $253,990
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Mojave Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	1mo	$265,507	$184	86
211 Greenhill Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-2%)	3mo	$290,990	$201	80
136 Lilywood Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	2mo	$254,990	$177	79
128 Lilywood Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-2%)	1mo	$259,660	$180	79
120 Lilywood Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	3mo	$271,640	$188	77
172 Mojave Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	1mo	$269,990	$172	77
207 Greenhill Trl	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	2mo	$300,990	$188	75
188 Mojave Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	2mo	$259,990	$166	75
132 Lilywood Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	2mo	$259,990	$166	73
144 Lilywood Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	3mo	$265,990	$170	73
130 Chestnut Ter	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	3mo	$294,990	$184	71
140 Lilywood Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-10%)	3mo	$259,990	$195	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-53,485
• Equity at exit: $37,871

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-62,291
• Equity at exit: $21,960

Cash invested: $71,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76023

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,810/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $225,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-107	+0% $-194	+5% $-282	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-275	+0% $-194	+5% $-114	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-67	-0.5pp $-130	base $-194	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,498
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Gerber Ln Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	0.10mi
139 Mojave RD Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,975	$1.48	26d	1	0.20mi
139 Mojave RD Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,895	$1.42	1d	1	0.20mi
156 Birch St Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,150	$1.35	3d	1	0.26mi
477 S Evans St Unit 300 Boyd, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,800	$1.07	0d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1699 chars)

   New phase now selling! D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your home builder in the fabulous unique master planned community of Springhill South in Boyd. The single-story Baylor Floorplan, Elevation B, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet located directly off the bathroom. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top offer comfortable accommodations for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances all main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. This home is built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, along with a tank water heater for added convenience. Exterior highlights include a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, privacy fencing, and more. This home includes our AMERICA'S SMART HOME base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Community Pool, Cabana, Walking Paths, Park, basketball court.

2. 2026-04-17
   price $253,990 1699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1699 chars)

   New phase now selling! D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your home builder in the fabulous unique master planned community of Springhill South in Boyd. The single-story Baylor Floorplan, Elevation B, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet located directly off the bathroom. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top offer comfortable accommodations for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances all main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. This home is built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, along with a tank water heater for added convenience. Exterior highlights include a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, privacy fencing, and more. This home includes our AMERICA'S SMART HOME base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Community Pool, Cabana, Walking Paths, Park, basketball court.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $249,990 Active 1699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1699 chars)

   New phase now selling! D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your home builder in the fabulous unique master planned community of Springhill South in Boyd. The single-story Baylor Floorplan, Elevation B, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space. The chef-inspired kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for convenient storage. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet located directly off the bathroom. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top offer comfortable accommodations for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances all main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. This home is built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, along with a tank water heater for added convenience. Exterior highlights include a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, privacy fencing, and more. This home includes our AMERICA'S SMART HOME base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Community Pool, Cabana, Walking Paths, Park, basketball court.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,227
• − Property taxes: −$3,810
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$6,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and located in a well-maintained community with a pool and playground. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the fresh paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appeal and value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,462
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5796
• State rank: #462 of 826 in TX

Livability — Boyd

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #4775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,192

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.08%
• Current HPI: 268.5024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $253,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $249,990 NTREIS