262 Birch Forest Ln · Boyd, TX 76023

$249,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,499 sqft lot 2-car garage $169/sqft · 13% below area Est $289k · 13% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New phase now selling! D. R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your home builder in the fabulous unique master planned community of Springhill South in Boyd. The single-story Baylor Floorplan, Elevation B, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept design ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow together seamlessly, creating a welcoming and functional central gathering space.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops
• Oversized shower

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OVERSIZED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Boyd — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#185 in TX, #4,775 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #462 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boyd El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 478 students, 57% FRL); Boyd Middle (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 202 students, 48% FRL); Boyd H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 386 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $210,066 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,778
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -13.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Mojave Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	3mo	$265,507	$184	84
136 Lilywood Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	4mo	$254,990	$177	78
128 Lilywood Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-2%)	2mo	$259,660	$180	78
258 Birch Forest Ln	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,657 (+12%)	2mo	$264,990	$160	78
105 Pinehurst Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,657 (+12%)	2mo	$264,990	$160	77
274 Birch Forest Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,662 (+12%)	1mo	$269,190	$162	77
120 Lilywood Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-2%)	4mo	$271,640	$188	76
172 Mojave Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	3mo	$269,990	$172	76
207 Greenhill Trl	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	4mo	$300,990	$188	74
188 Mojave Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	4mo	$259,990	$166	74
132 Lilywood Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+6%)	3mo	$259,990	$166	72
140 Lilywood Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-10%)	4mo	$259,990	$195	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,464
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,127
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.9 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,990 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76023

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,240

Max offer price $234,058

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-24	+0% $-110	+5% $-196	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-193	+0% $-110	+5% $-27	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-47	base $-110	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Bay Meadows LN Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$2,190	$1.37	28d	1	0.09mi
134 Gerber Ln Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,100	$1.34	93d	1	0.10mi
139 Mojave RD Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,975	$1.48	73d	1	0.20mi
139 Mojave RD Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,895	$1.42	48d	1	0.20mi
156 Birch St Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,150	$1.35	51d	1	0.26mi
113 Orchard Pines Pl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,345	$1.28	2d	1	0.29mi
129 Blossom Trl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,350	$1.28	26d	1	0.31mi
477 S Evans St Unit 300 Boyd, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,800	$1.07	35d	1	0.81mi
477 S Evans St Unit 200 Boyd, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,890	$1.16	14d	1	0.81mi
204 E Boyd Ave Boyd, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	0d	1	1.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller exclusions: minerals retained by developerEasements for utilities
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; management by VCM, Inc.Association fee includes management feesCommunity features: community pool, park, playground, jogging/bike path, curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front)2 covered parking spacesCarport spaces: 0
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water and city sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meter and natural gas availableIndividual water meterCable availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSewer available
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyNew construction (incomplete) — 2026Not attached to other unitsSmoke detector(s) installedSmart home features
• Construction: Brick, frame and rock/stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porchGuttersWood fencing in back yardLandscaped yard with sprinkler systemFew treesSubdivision settingConcrete driveway and sidewalksCommunity mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveWater line to refrigeratorPlumbed for gas in kitchenBuilt-in cabinetsSolid surface (non-natural) countersWalk-in pantryKitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with separate shower and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and central airHeat pumpNatural gas availableElectric components
• Interior features: Open floorplan with decorative lightingEat-in kitchen with kitchen island and pantryCable TV and high-speed internet availableSmart home systemVented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookup and electric dryer hookupSeparate utility room

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $249,990 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $249,990 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $249,990 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,990 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $249,990 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $249,990 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $263,420 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $263,420 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $263,420 Active 22 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    pricestatus $263,420 Active 21 DOM
21. 2026-05-06
    status Pending 1699-char remark
22. 2026-04-17
    price $253,990 1699-char remark
23. 2026-04-15
    listed $249,990 Active 1699-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$5,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $24/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and located in a well-maintained community with a pool and playground. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the fresh paint and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Boyd El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Boyd Middle F TX #660/1,662 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Boyd H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,462
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5796
• State rank: #462 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Boyd

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #4775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise · 71,620 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,192
• Household income: $80,927
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.08%
• Current HPI: 268.5024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller exclusions: minerals retained by developerEasements for utilities
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; management by VCM, Inc.Association fee includes management feesCommunity features: community pool, park, playground, jogging/bike path, curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front)2 covered parking spacesCarport spaces: 0
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water and city sewerElectricity connectedIndividual gas meter and natural gas availableIndividual water meterCable availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSewer available
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyNew construction (incomplete) — 2026Not attached to other unitsSmoke detector(s) installedSmart home features
• Construction: Brick, frame and rock/stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porchGuttersWood fencing in back yardLandscaped yard with sprinkler systemFew treesSubdivision settingConcrete driveway and sidewalksCommunity mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveWater line to refrigeratorPlumbed for gas in kitchenBuilt-in cabinetsSolid surface (non-natural) countersWalk-in pantryKitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with separate shower and walk-in closetThree additional bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and central airHeat pumpNatural gas availableElectric components
• Interior features: Open floorplan with decorative lightingEat-in kitchen with kitchen island and pantryCable TV and high-speed internet availableSmart home systemVented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookup and electric dryer hookupSeparate utility room

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $253,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $249,990 NTREIS