3840 Wall Street St Unit HS 90 · Panama City, FL 32404

$269,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,500 sqft lot $156/sqft · 9% below area Est $297k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gehrig floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout that blends comfort, functionality, and modern style. At the front of the home, 3 well-appointed bedrooms provide privacy and versatility, making them ideal for family members, guests, or a home office. The entryway leads into a spacious open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining room, and family room connect seamlessly for easy everyday living. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinets to complement both style and convenience. Privately situated at the rear, the owner's suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Quartz countertops
• 42 cabinets

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 42 CABINETS
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1200 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,064 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,990
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3840 Wall Street St Unit HS 90	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,732 (0%)	1mo	$269,990	$156	99
3845 Alwyn Cashe Ave #36	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+1%)	0mo	$316,485	$181	91
3840 Wall St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,732 (0%)	1mo	$269,990	$156	88
3853 Alwyn Cashe Ave #38	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+6%)	0mo	$294,990	$160	86
3961 Alwyn Cashe Ave #49	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (+1%)	2mo	$306,490	$176	85
3665 Cedar Park Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,751 (+1%)	2mo	$369,000	$211	80
3805 Wall St #102	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-9%)	0mo	$259,000	$165	68
3600 Basal St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (-1%)	0mo	$303,790	$177	66
3588 Basal St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+5%)	0mo	$307,967	$169	65
3950 Red Deer Cir	0.75mi	4/2.5	1,650 (-5%)	2mo	$329,900	$200	54
3869 Sandpine Way	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (+5%)	2mo	$358,000	$197	51
3604 Basal St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (+10%)	0mo	$314,504	$165	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-56,883
• Equity at exit: $40,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-77,137
• Equity at exit: $23,344

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $322,709 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1200
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $249,278

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-50	+0% $-143	+5% $-236	+10% $-330
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-229	+0% $-143	+5% $-57	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-74	base $-143	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3884 Red Deer Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	70d	1	0.75mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	70d	1	0.77mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	62d	1	1.03mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	70d	1	1.03mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	70d	1	1.07mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	70d	1	1.12mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	62d	1	1.17mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	70d	1	1.40mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	70d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $269,990 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $269,990 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $269,990 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $269,990 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $269,990 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-25
   days on market $269,990 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-23
   days on market $269,990 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,990 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,990 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,990 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-06-10
    days on market $269,990 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,990 Active 118 DOM
18. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 117 DOM
19. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 113 DOM
21. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 112 DOM
22. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 111 DOM
23. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 110 DOM
24. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,990 Active 109 DOM
25. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,990 Active 108 DOM
26. 2026-05-15
    price $269,990 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    The Gehrig floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout that blends comfort, functionality, and modern style. At the front of the home, 3 well-appointed bedrooms provide privacy and versatility, making them ideal for family members, guests, or a home office. The entryway leads into a spacious open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining room, and family room connect seamlessly for easy everyday living. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinets to complement both style and convenience. Privately situated at the rear, the owner's suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet.

27. 2026-04-05
    price $272,485 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    The Gehrig floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout that blends comfort, functionality, and modern style. At the front of the home, 3 well-appointed bedrooms provide privacy and versatility, making them ideal for family members, guests, or a home office. The entryway leads into a spacious open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining room, and family room connect seamlessly for easy everyday living. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinets to complement both style and convenience. Privately situated at the rear, the owner's suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet.

28. 2026-02-21
    price $281,985 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    The Gehrig floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout that blends comfort, functionality, and modern style. At the front of the home, 3 well-appointed bedrooms provide privacy and versatility, making them ideal for family members, guests, or a home office. The entryway leads into a spacious open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining room, and family room connect seamlessly for easy everyday living. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinets to complement both style and convenience. Privately situated at the rear, the owner's suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet.

29. 2026-02-18
    price $276,990 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    The Gehrig floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout that blends comfort, functionality, and modern style. At the front of the home, 3 well-appointed bedrooms provide privacy and versatility, making them ideal for family members, guests, or a home office. The entryway leads into a spacious open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining room, and family room connect seamlessly for easy everyday living. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinets to complement both style and convenience. Privately situated at the rear, the owner's suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet.

30. 2026-02-11
    listed $271,990 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    The Gehrig floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout that blends comfort, functionality, and modern style. At the front of the home, 3 well-appointed bedrooms provide privacy and versatility, making them ideal for family members, guests, or a home office. The entryway leads into a spacious open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining room, and family room connect seamlessly for easy everyday living. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinets to complement both style and convenience. Privately situated at the rear, the owner's suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$6,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,535
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a modern and well-designed layout with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tommy Smith Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Bay High School F FL #367/667 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $269,990 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $272,485 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $281,985 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $276,990 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $271,990 CPARMLS