135 Margin Dr E · Shirley, NY 11967

$425,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1985 0.25 ac lot Est $518k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath ranch sits on a desirable corner lot of approximately . 25 acres in Shirley. The basement features a convenient side entrance — ideal for extended living or future finishing potential. Being sold as-is(Cash/203k Loans only) this is the perfect canvas for investors or buyers looking to add their personal touch. Don't miss your chance to make it your own!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Finished basement with walk-out access; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: No appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-987/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $410k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $398k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathaniel Woodhull Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,191 of 2,108 statewide, top 57%, 703 students, 54% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $334k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $397,817 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $517,570
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Appel Dr E	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,409 (-1%)	6mo	$351,000	$249	80
33 Breston Dr W	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+13%)	6mo	$589,000	$368	66
11 The Grn	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,363 (-4%)	5mo	$460,000	$337	65
36 Happy Acres Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,429 (+1%)	4mo	$585,069	$409	64
33 Loughlin Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (+6%)	2mo	$547,500	$365	63
74 Alcolade Dr E	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	2mo	$431,000	$299	56
36 Maple Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+6%)	2mo	$600,000	$397	49
72 Tipton Dr E	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,239 (-13%)	10mo	$530,000	$428	49
137 Hounslow Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,508 (+6%)	9mo	$499,000	$331	48
61 Arpage Dr E	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (+6%)	2mo	$580,000	$387	48
18 Happy Acres Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (+6%)	6mo	$465,000	$310	48
16 Flintlock Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+12%)	5mo	$535,000	$336	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-73,868
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-70,102
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$819 /mo · $9,830/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$835
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,082

Max offer price $410,477

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	0.86mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	1.24mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $425,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $425,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-27
    listed $425,000 Active
14. 2007-04-12
    soldstatus $333,900
15. 1997-12-24
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 1989-11-30
    soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,830 · $819/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,830 · $819/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$9,830
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,819
• − Management: −$3,819
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$8,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,926
• After-tax cash flow: $939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+342.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $333,900 Public Records
• 1997-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,830 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.