The Rutledge Plan · Lillington, NC 27546

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Rutledge welcomes you with a covered front porch that leads into the foyer. Just off the entrance, a convenient powder room and coat closet are ideally placed for guests. The heart of the home features an open-concept layout where the family room, dining area, and kitchen flow seamlessly together. The kitchen is both stylish and functional, with a walk-in pantry, an optional central island, and direct access to the rear patio perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, the owners suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and private bath. Two additional bedrooms share a full bath, and the laundry room is conveniently located on the second floor to make daily routines a breeze. Designed to adapt

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private bath
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DIRECT ACCESS TO REAR PATIO
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Lillington, NC 27546
• Financial info: List price $199,900
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Central air (has cooling)
• Home design: New construction plan (The Rutledge)
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area of 1443

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home — The Rutledge
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($16/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 834 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,037 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,281
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,894
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27546

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 834
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $70	+0% $1	+5% $-68	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-68	+0% $1	+5% $70	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $52	base $1	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Grove Cir Unit 102 Lillington, NC	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,725	$1.33	24d	1	1.35mi
150 Grove Cir Apt 204 Lillington, NC	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	1.39mi
170 Grove Cir Unit 302 Lillington, NC	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,575	$1.44	24d	1	1.39mi
170 Grove Cir Lillington, NC	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,625	$1.49	24d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lillington, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,419
• Household income: $66,746
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.35%
• Current HPI: 198.2885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B