4407 49th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1959 6,843 sqft lot $93/sqft · 7% below area Est $172k · 7% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Awesome rental property! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2 car garage, brick home is available! Located on a great street, central town, close to tons of shopping, loop 289 and Marsha for getting around town, this is a great spot to own. Inside there are vinyl plank floors, newer kitchen cabinets and countertops, and tons of storage.

Key facts

• Brick home
• Tons of storage
• Vinyl plank floors

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS
• TONS OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public maintained road with city street frontage

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area listed as 1,716 (above grade)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Fenced backyard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-672/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 405 students, 87% FRL); Evans Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 799 students, 58% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,041 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,813
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -6.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-32,813
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-46,128
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,174/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $150,107

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4320 52nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	0.20mi
4314 52nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,400	$0.75	21d	1	0.22mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	13d	9	0.26mi
4210 52nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,575	$0.92	13d	1	0.30mi
4313 53rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1368	$1,200	$0.88	43d	1	0.31mi
4213 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,550	$0.92	13d	1	0.41mi
4324 56th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	43d	1	0.45mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	43d	1	0.46mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	0.46mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	21d	1	0.47mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	21d	1	0.48mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	43d	1	0.51mi
4211 41st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$1,599	$0.82	43d	1	0.52mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	13d	1	0.54mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	21d	1	0.58mi
4313 58th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1165	$1,099	$0.94	43d	1	0.61mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	0.61mi
4303 58th St Unit a Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1170	$1,050	$0.90	43d	1	0.62mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	43d	1	0.63mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.64mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.67mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	13d	1	0.69mi
3631 54th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1145	$1,099	$0.96	43d	1	0.70mi
4711 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,025	$0.93	21d	1	0.72mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	43d	1	0.73mi
4608 60th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$1,650	$0.93	21d	1	0.74mi
5018 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1245	$1,275	$1.02	13d	1	0.76mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	13d	1	0.76mi
3806 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1150	$900	$0.78	13d	1	0.76mi
5202 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,022	$0.94	21d	1	0.77mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.77mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	0.78mi
5324 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	13d	1	0.79mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5324 Kenosha Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$950	$0.73	13d	1	0.79mi
5302 Kenosha Ave Unit 5330 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	43d	1	0.79mi
5011 52nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	21d	1	0.80mi
5330 Kenosha Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,050	$0.81	43d	1	0.80mi
5017 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,600	$0.91	43d	1	0.82mi
4806 60th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,375	$0.97	13d	1	0.85mi
6027 Orlando Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,400	$1.26	21d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $160,000 Active 331-char remark
18. 2024-09-16
    soldstatus
19. 2024-04-02
    price $167,900
20. 2023-12-28
    soldstatus
21. 2023-10-30
    price $179,000
22. 2023-10-16
    price $185,000
23. 2023-01-05
    soldstatus
24. 2022-12-20
    soldstatus
25. 2006-06-05
    soldstatus
26. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus
27. 1982-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,174 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,174 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,174
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $167,900 LARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $179,000 LARMLS
• 2023-10-16 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2023-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,174 · -21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.