7244 Stibgen Rd NW · Olympia, WA 98502

$679,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2025 1.19 ac lot $332/sqft · 13% below area Est $778k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to this brand new 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom custom built estate! Privacy greets you as you approach the home down a long private driveway. Over 1.1 acres of level usable yard space. Nicely landscaped and plenty of parking! Luxury vinyl flooring throughout provides that modern touch and easy cleaning. Enjoy your chefs kitchen with beautiful quartz countertops and plenty of cabinet space. Laundry conveniently located off kitchen/garage. Oversized back deck invites you to enjoy this wooded setting with lovely seasonal stream. Primary bedroom with gorgeous en suite bath offers a spacious shower and a separate stand alone tub! Two car garage with 12' Ceilings & propane hookup fo

Key facts

• Usable yard space
• Quartz countertops
• Landscaped

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• USABLE YARD SPACE
• LANDSCAPED
• CHEFS KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $679k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (57.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (61.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (61.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Griffin School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #28 of 291 in WA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Griffin School (577 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($598k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $679k implies a 448% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $262,000 (61.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.90%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 21.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $777,964
• List price: $679,000
• Delta: -12.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7332 Stibgen Rd NW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-6%)	17mo	$640,000	$333	72
7346 Steamboat Island Rd NW	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-9%)	4mo	$674,950	$361	69
4916 69th Ave NW	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,198 (+7%)	14mo	$855,000	$389	43
7848 Hargis St NW	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,253 (+10%)	13mo	$1,000,000	$444	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $229,737
• Equity at exit: $611,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $787,272
• Equity at exit: $1,319,148

Cash invested: $190,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 21.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,561
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,142/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-2,202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,408

Max offer price $289,948

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,818	-5% $-2,010	+0% $-2,202	+5% $-2,395	+10% $-2,587
Rent	-10% $-2,409	-5% $-2,306	+0% $-2,202	+5% $-2,099	+10% $-1,995
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,860	-0.5pp $-2,030	base $-2,202	+0.5pp $-2,378	+1.0pp $-2,557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $169,750
• Closing costs: $20,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $679,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $679,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $679,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $679,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $679,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $679,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $679,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $679,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $679,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $679,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $679,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $679,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $679,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $679,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $679,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $679,000 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-01-17
    listed $699,000 Active
18. 2007-06-05
    soldstatus $124,000
19. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus $124,000
20. 2007-03-30
    listed $134,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,142 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,654 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,513/yr (+$126/mo · 29.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,035
• − Property taxes: −$5,142
• − Insurance: −$3,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,515
• − Management: −$2,515
• − Depreciation: −$19,753
• Taxable loss: −$39,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin School District
• NCES district ID: 5303330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,706
• Composite: 58.36/100
• National rank: #2079
• State rank: #28 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+419.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $699,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-05 Sold (MLS) $124,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-30 Listed $134,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+32.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,142 · +584.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.