3844 Northaven Trl · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$254,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · Land · 151 Days on market

Built 2024 4,791 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est. $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1096 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $170,052 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,000
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: 1.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-76,398
• Equity at exit: $37,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-124,699
• Equity at exit: $21,961

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1096
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,549/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $170,052

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3889 Northhaven Trl Santa Clara, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,680	$0.88	44d	1	0.08mi
755 Wonderland Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$1,699	$0.88	4d	1	0.12mi
755 Wonderland Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$1,699	$0.88	16d	1	0.12mi
3738 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	15d	1	0.23mi
742 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	3d	1	0.24mi
3967 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	24d	1	0.25mi
754 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	3d	1	0.26mi
3729 Wentz Hill Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	16d	1	0.33mi
3645 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	44d	1	0.35mi
740 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	44d	1	0.37mi
3707 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,550	$1.14	4d	1	0.40mi
751 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	24d	1	0.40mi
722 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$3,200	$2.51	44d	1	0.41mi
713 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	0.44mi
4171 River Legacy Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,570	$1.20	24d	1	0.62mi
3200 Falconhead New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2076	$2,500	$1.20	2d	1	0.98mi
772 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,750	$1.14	24d	1	1.28mi
2960 Nicholas Cv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	2d	1	1.35mi
2964 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	2.0	2.0	1395	$2,250	$1.61	10d	1	1.37mi
3143 Douglas Fir Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,325	$0.97	15d	1	1.38mi
363 Copper Mtn New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,695	$1.44	4d	1	1.48mi
3027 Pine Valley Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.48mi
3032 Douglas Fir Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,650	$1.24	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $254,000 Pending 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,000 Active Option 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,000 Active Option 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Active Option 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,000 Active Option 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $254,000 Active Option 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $254,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $254,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Price Change 137 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Price Change 136 DOM
12. 2026-05-02
    price $249,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

13. 2026-05-01
    price $249,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

14. 2026-04-17
    listed $249,500 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

15. 2026-04-11
    price $249,500 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

16. 2026-02-20
    price $250,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

17. 2026-01-15
    listed $260,000 New 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Carmel- This new single-level home provides ample space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, dining area and family room, with convenient access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and relaxation. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the foyer, and the luxe owner's suite is tucked away into a private corner at the back of the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and roomy walk-in closet.

18. 2026-01-02
    soldstatus
19. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2025-10-27
    status Pending
21. 2025-10-24
    price $310,999
22. 2025-10-16
    price $290,999
23. 2025-10-15
    listed $296,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,549 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,648 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$4,549
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$10,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $249,000 LERA
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $249,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $249,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $249,500 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $250,000 LERA
• 2026-01-15 Listed $260,000 LERA
• 2026-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-10-27 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $310,999 LERA
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $290,999 LERA
• 2025-10-15 Listed $296,999 LERA

Property tax history

+177.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,549 · +528.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.