20123 Green Mallard St · Houston, TX 77532

$125,241

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $125/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kofa Floor Plan - This new two-story home has a practical floorplan with a fully-equipped kitchen and inviting family room on the first floor. Two bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the restful owner’s suite, offering residents an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Southern Property Management Grou; HOA fee of $125 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Gas oven and gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14 x 10); Second bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 9); Total of 4 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Open kitchen/family room layout; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $125,241 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $213,315.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $125,241

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,315
• List price: $125,241
• Delta: -41.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20123 Green Mallard St	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,013 (0%)	1mo	$125,241	$124	99
20139 Green Mallard St	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	2mo	$181,990	$180	95
20146 Green Mallard St	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	2mo	$181,990	$180	95
20155 Green Mallard St	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	2mo	$181,990	$180	95
20162 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	3mo	$181,990	$180	78
20178 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	4mo	$181,990	$180	77
20171 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,013 (0%)	4mo	$181,990	$180	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,222
• Equity at exit: $31,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-56,226
• Equity at exit: $18,444

Cash invested: $59,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,119
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$267 /mo · $3,200/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,024

Max offer price $199,937

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,329
• Closing costs: $6,399
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	13d	1	0.11mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	13d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 441-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   price $125,241 441-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   price $125,241
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $130,240 Active 441-char remark
5. 2026-04-30
   historical
6. 2026-04-28
   price $130,240
7. 2026-04-20
   price $135,240
8. 2026-04-16
   price $143,140
9. 2026-04-14
   price $145,640
10. 2026-04-09
    price $148,140
11. 2026-04-06
    price $153,290
12. 2026-04-02
    price $158,640
13. 2026-03-31
    price $163,990
14. 2026-03-27
    price $169,990
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $181,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,949
• − Property taxes: −$3,200
• − Insurance: −$1,067
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$6,206
• Taxable loss: −$4,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,127
• After-tax cash flow: $18/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a practical floor plan and modern finishes. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and minor updates to the kitchen and bathrooms to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and appeal to potential buyers
• Rental Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can attract renters and improve rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Rental Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can attract renters and improve rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-31.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $125,241 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $125,241 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $130,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $130,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $135,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $143,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $145,640 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $148,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $153,290 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $158,640 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $163,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $181,990 HARMLS