San Francisco Plan · Conroe, TX 77302

$386,729

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The San Francisco | Two Story | 4 Bedrooms | 3.5 Baths | Formal Dining Room | Game Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage| Optional: Large Shower at Main Bath. Extended Covered patio, Study in lieu of Formal Dining RoomExperience the San Francisco by Chesmar Homes in the beautiful Evergreen community, where spacious living, thoughtful design, and modern comfort come together in one exceptional floor plan. Designed for the way today's families live, this open-concept home features a seamless flow between the chef-inspired kitchen, dining area, and expansive family room, creating the perfect setting for everything from everyday meals to unforgettable celebrations.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Covered patio
• Game room

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $386,729 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $457,283.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson El (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 944 students, 54% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 34% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1310 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,613 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.06%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $457,283
• List price: $386,729
• Delta: -15.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16231 Sheridan River Trl	0.28mi	4/3.5	2,631 (+8%)	0mo	$499,990	$190	73
15806 Wild Rose Bend Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+3%)	1mo	$449,900	$180	70
15825 Wild Rose Bend Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,357 (-3%)	2mo	$449,900	$191	69
15683 Hoptree Heights Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+3%)	0mo	$474,900	$190	67
13040 Soaring Forest Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,262 (-7%)	2mo	$489,990	$217	67
12751 Copperbush Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+5%)	1mo	$449,900	$177	63
12727 Copperbush Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,619 (+8%)	2mo	$474,900	$181	61
15723 Hoptree Heights Ln	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,637 (+8%)	2mo	$524,862	$199	60
15922 Mahogany Mist Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,796 (+15%)	0mo	$587,900	$210	55
15739 Azure Petal Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+8%)	1mo	$422,389	$161	52
12731 Copperbush Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,796 (+15%)	1mo	$499,900	$179	49
15647 Hoptree Heights Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,251 (-7%)	1mo	$469,900	$209	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-148,479
• Equity at exit: $68,182

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-222,809
• Equity at exit: $39,537

Cash invested: $128,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 111 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $467,900 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 168 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1310
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,398
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$572 /mo · $6,859/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-1,180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,000

Max offer price $286,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-864	-5% $-1,022	+0% $-1,180	+5% $-1,338	+10% $-1,496
Rent	-10% $-1,378	-5% $-1,279	+0% $-1,180	+5% $-1,081	+10% $-982
Rate	-1.0pp $-950	-0.5pp $-1,064	base $-1,180	+0.5pp $-1,299	+1.0pp $-1,419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,321
• Closing costs: $13,718
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planPlan model named San Francisco
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,432

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: San Francisco

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $386,729 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $386,729 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $386,729 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $386,729 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $386,729 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $386,729 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $386,729 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $386,729 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $386,729 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $386,729 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $386,729 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $386,729 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $386,729 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $386,729 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $386,729 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $386,729 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $386,729 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    remarks 699-char remark
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $386,729 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $386,729 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $386,729 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $386,729 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $386,729 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $386,729 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $386,729 Active 55 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $386,729 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $386,729 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $386,729 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $386,729 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $386,729 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $386,729 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $386,729 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $386,729 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $386,729 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $386,729 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $386,729 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $386,729 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $386,729 Active 40 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $386,729 Active 38 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $386,729 Active 37 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $386,729 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $386,729 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $386,729 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $386,729 Active 31 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $386,729 Active 29 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $386,729 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $386,729 Active 24 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $386,729 Active 23 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $386,729 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $386,729 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,615
• − Property taxes: −$6,859
• − Insurance: −$2,286
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − Depreciation: −$13,303
• Taxable loss: −$22,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-resistant plants — Improves curb appeal and reduces maintenance costs ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wilkinson El F TX #1,490/4,322 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle Peet J H C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planPlan model named San Francisco
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,432

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: San Francisco