2500 N Hwy 59 #74 · Merced, CA 95341

$39,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Recently Reduced. Great location! 1 bedroom, 1 bath, mobile home. Club house, club house pool, carport. Great location close to shopping centers. Easy access to Freeway. Security doors and outside storage shed. Comes completely furnished. Includes new stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer, window air conditioners, and new furnace. Bring all offers. Must be approved by park manager.

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Upgraded flooring
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• UPGRADED FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• LARGE SHOWER
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Monthly land lease of $680

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Riviera Holiday park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (12' x 50'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: In-ground community pool; Rectangular lot shape; Street lighting in the community

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Entry located on the left
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $40k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.14%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $32,414
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $73,840
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95341

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $662	-5% $648	+0% $635	+5% $621	+10% $607
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $583	+0% $635	+5% $686	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $655	-0.5pp $645	base $635	+0.5pp $625	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1840 U St Unit 3 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	594	$1,175	$1.98	14d	1	0.50mi
1760 Conestoga Dr Apt B Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	14d	1	0.66mi
3270 Denver Ave Unit 3 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	14d	1	1.00mi
3270 Meadows Ave Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,210	$2.16	14d	7	1.05mi
651 Q St Unit n/a Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	400	$1,250	$3.12	14d	1	1.22mi
515 W Main St Unit 301 Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	646	$1,475	$2.28	14d	1	1.29mi
2142 K St Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,079	$1.54	14d	1	1.43mi
2128 K St Merced, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	14d	1	1.44mi
536 W 10th St Unit 3 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	623	$1,300	$2.09	14d	1	1.44mi
341 W 21st St Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	21d	1	1.44mi
925 Loughborough Dr Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,225	$1.59	14d	3	1.45mi
2355 K St Unit 112 Merced, CA	—	1.0	500	$975	$1.95	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 595-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listing id $39,500 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $39,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $7,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,806
• After-tax cash flow: $5,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,385
• Household income: $57,342
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.65%
• Current HPI: 314.4223
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+132.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $39,500 CRMLS
• 2020-07-17 Sold (MLS) $13,500 CRMLS
• 2020-07-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-03-09 Price Changed $15,000 CRMLS
• 2019-12-02 Price Changed $16,000 CRMLS
• 2019-10-21 Listed $17,000 CRMLS