4305 Valley Forge Dr · Enid, OK 73703

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1978 8,059 sqft lot Est $175k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home with new tile flooring in the living room & kitchen. Brand new carpet in the bedrooms & hallway too! Kitchen has granite countertops, new sink, solid wood cabinets & new light fixtures. Hall bathroom has been very nicely updated with a new vanity, granite countertop, custom shower & flooring. Home also offers a whole home water softener & purified water system to the kitchen sink & refrigerator. Backyard has a new fence for great privacy while you entertain under the covered patio. Stay safe in the Oklahoma storms in the in-ground storm shelter in the garage.

Key facts

• Cozy brick fireplace
• Vaulted ceilings
• 8,059 sq ft lot

Tags

• HIGHLY DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SCRATCH RESISTANT FLOORING
• COZY BRICK FIREPLACE
• FUNCTIONAL GALLEY KITCHEN
• LARGE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Interior lot size approximately 0.185 acres; Occupied; No conditions affecting sale
• Financial info: Financing may qualify; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage floor storm shelter
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Existing property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Composition roof; Built status: existing
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Interior lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One living area; Living area reported by assessor; Slab foundation; Insert fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($658/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Enid — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#212 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Enid (town): math 19% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #168 of 270 in OK (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View Es (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #84 of 845 statewide, top 11%, 431 students, 0% FRL); Dewitt Waller Ms (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #120 of 345 statewide, top 35%, 735 students, 0% FRL); Enid Hs (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #236 of 447 statewide, top 61%, 2,252 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garfield County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,511 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,028
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4321 Valley Frg	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+1%)	4mo	$172,500	$130	92
4006 Tory Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+3%)	2mo	$179,000	$133	86
4202 Revere Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-3%)	1mo	$174,900	$137	84
2513 Mt Vernon Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+8%)	6mo	$199,000	$140	76
2714 Constitution Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+9%)	7mo	$202,000	$141	74
2902 Liberty Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+2%)	22mo	$172,500	$129	65
4008 Philadelphia Pl	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (+3%)	20mo	$170,000	$125	64
2402 Liberty Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+12%)	9mo	$161,000	$109	61
2901 Williamsburg	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-13%)	8mo	$180,000	$157	58
1908 N Oakwood	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,255 (-5%)	5mo	$148,000	$118	58
2901 Mt Vernon Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+14%)	22mo	$165,000	$110	47
3709 Scarlet Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+14%)	1mo	$220,000	$146	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-24,932
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-20,770
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73703

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,252/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,456

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $103	+0% $55	+5% $7	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-5	+0% $55	+5% $115	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $98	base $55	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-12
    listed $170,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,252 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,252 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,252
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $1,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Enid
• NCES district ID: 4010920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,389
• Composite: 17.59/100
• National rank: #9040
• State rank: #168 of 270 in OK

Livability — Enid

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #15472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Enid, OK
• County: Garfield County · 55,032 people
• City population: 55,032
• Metro: Enid, OK
• Population (ZIP): 30,556
• Household income: $73,333
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Garfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,026 people
• By 2030: 72,171 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 79,366 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 87,847 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 112,714 · +63.3%
• By 2100: 135,682 · +96.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garfield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.2% · R 76.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+53.7 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.61%
• Current HPI: 187.8197
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Enid, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+133.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $170,000 MLSOK
• 2023-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-11 Sold (MLS) $159,900 NWOAR
• 2023-06-03 Listed $159,900 NWOAR
• 2009-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $102,440 Public Records
• 2004-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,252 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.