219 Willow Dr · New Bloomfield, MO 65063

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $203k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath home on large lot. Large deck and shop plus storage shed. OWNER/BROKER.

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Tool shed
• Large yard

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• ONE-CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• TOOL SHED
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#365 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• New Bloomfield R-III (rural): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #165 of 324 in MO (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 40 units permitted in Callaway County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $160k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,575
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Oak St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-12%)	22mo	$179,900	$187	53
102 Chevy Chase Ln	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-9%)	1mo	$184,900	$185	49
711 Redwood Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,103 (+1%)	20mo	$209,900	$190	49
222 Maple St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,258 (+15%)	18mo	$185,000	$147	41
336 Elmwood Circle Cir	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,022 (-7%)	22mo	$165,000	$161	35
614 Cedar Ln	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	959 (-12%)	19mo	$161,900	$169	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-781
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $31,578
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65063

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   remarks 683-char remark
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,034 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,552 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$518/yr (+$43/mo · 50.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $4,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Bloomfield R-III
• NCES district ID: 2921875
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,892
• Composite: 33.04/100
• National rank: #5574
• State rank: #165 of 324 in MO

Livability — New Bloomfield

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #16061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Bloomfield, MO
• City population: 4,180
• Population (ZIP): 4,180

Population outlook (Callaway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,390 people
• By 2030: 45,493 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 45,092 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 44,069 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 41,875 · -7.7%
• By 2100: 38,094 · -16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Callaway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.6% · R 70.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+42.3 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.75%
• Current HPI: 206.671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+128.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $160,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-20 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $176,000 JCMLS
• 2018-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) — HMMLS
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $73,250 HMMLS
• 2018-10-22 Listed $73,250 JCMLS
• 2014-10-10 Listed $69,999 HMMLS
• 2006-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,034 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.