5504 Jib Ln · Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76502

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2018 10,197 sqft lot Est $128k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Premium Hobbyist Workshop That Comes With a Move-In Ready Home Check out this unique property offering comfort, functionality, and space for work, storage, or hobbies, all located in the highly sought-after Lake Belton High School district. This home is considered real property and will go FHA or VA financing as the foundation is fixed to land. Situated on a fully fenced corner lot with 2 separate entrances, this 2018 manufactured home features 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, vaulted ceilings, and an open-concept kitchen and living area that creates a spacious and inviting feel. A custom covered wood deck entrance adds charm and a warm welcome to the home. Insulated metal roof adds to more d

Key facts

• No city taxes
• Insulated metal roof
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED CORNER LOT
• CUSTOM COVERED WOOD DECK
• INSULATED METAL ROOF
• MASSIVE 500+ SQ FT WORKSHOP
• NO CITY TAXES
• CO-OP WATER AND ELECTRICITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Lakeaire); Community features: boat facilities, playground, park, storage facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Oversized parking; Tandem parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Trash collection (private); Community/Coop water; Public sewer and/or septic tank (not connected at lot)
• Home design: Single-story; Double wide mobile home; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal roof; HardiPlank exterior
• Construction: Built (year per assessor); HardiPlank-type siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck; Porch; Patio; Storage; Outbuilding / workshop; Chain link fencing; Corner lot; Outside city limits; Less than quarter acre lot; Asphalt road access; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / stove; Microwave; Refrigerator; Plumbed for ice maker
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric, one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Tub with shower; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room / utility room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1114 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.73%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,776
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5588 Helm Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	4mo	$73,500	$70	77
5504 Helm Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	952 (-10%)	15mo	$115,000	$121	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,157
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $24,235
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1114
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $880/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $600	-5% $558	+0% $515	+5% $473	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $372	-5% $443	+0% $515	+5% $587	+10% $659
Rate	-1.0pp $591	-0.5pp $553	base $515	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13550 Kuykendall Mountain Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,800	$2.78	44d	1	0.72mi
14572 Kuykendall Mountain Rd Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,500 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $165,500 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 2026-04-20
    historical
20. 2026-04-19
    price $174,999
21. 2026-04-09
    price $178,288
22. 2026-04-06
    price $178,900
23. 2026-04-01
    price $179,488
24. 2026-03-25
    status Active
25. 2026-03-25
    price $179,900
26. 2026-03-21
    historical
27. 2026-03-20
    price $219,900
28. 2026-01-29
    price $199,900
29. 2025-12-17
    price $225,900
30. 2025-11-11
    listed $249,900 Active
31. 2025-09-24
    soldstatus
32. 2018-02-22
    historical
33. 2018-01-11
    status Pending with Option
34. 2017-09-15
    listed $7,000 Active
35. 2014-07-24
    listed $4,350
36. 1984-06-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $880 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,864/yr (+$155/mo · 211.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$880
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$948
• After-tax cash flow: $5,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morgan's Point Resort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3808.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $170,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $174,999 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $178,288 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $178,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $179,488 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $179,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $219,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $199,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $225,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $249,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-22 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-01-11 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2017-09-15 Listed $7,000 CTXMLS
• 2014-07-24 Listed $4,350 CTXMLS
• 1984-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $880 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.