4073 Nelson Hill Pl · Valdosta, GA 31632

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $253k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence featuring a spacious open-concept layout perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The heart of the home offers seamless flow between the living room, kitchen, and dining areas, highlighted by durable and stylish porcelain tile flooring throughout the main living spaces, kitchen, and hallways. Enjoy peace and privacy in the fully fenced backyard with no rear neighbors & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; ideal for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings on the outdoor patio. Located in a quiet, well-kept neighborhood, this home offers the perfect balance of comfort and convenience. Situated just minutes from H

Key facts

• Pond access
• Quiet neighborhood
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PORCELAIN TILE FLOORING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• POND ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,864 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,110
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4089 Silver Gln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,534 (0%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	97
4097 Nelson Hill Pl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+1%)	2mo	$254,000	$165	95
4122 Nelson Hill Pl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+1%)	5mo	$252,000	$163	89
4154 Shadow Garden Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+3%)	3mo	$264,500	$168	88
4167 Silver Gln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+1%)	4mo	$245,000	$159	86
4192 Bright Crk	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+1%)	4mo	$255,900	$166	85
4160 Willow Round Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+1%)	5mo	$248,000	$161	84
4152 Willow Round Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-2%)	3mo	$265,500	$177	84
4115 Cider Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+0%)	2mo	$265,000	$172	83
3988 Nelson Hill Pl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+6%)	3mo	$260,000	$160	77
4176 Cider Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-6%)	4mo	$227,605	$159	71
4058 Cottage Hts	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-9%)	1mo	$230,000	$165	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $136,238
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $405,272
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,286/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,104

Max offer price $245,266

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4112 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,750	$1.14	43d	1	0.06mi
4171 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,650	$1.07	20d	1	0.19mi
4162 Nelson Hill Pl Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	20d	1	0.22mi
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	20d	1	0.25mi
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	20d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,286 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,392 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,286
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $260,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+34.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,286 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.