Kingston Plan · Newark, TX 76071

$346,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,082 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kingston is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 2,082 sq. ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space ideal for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island with sink overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. The adjacent dining area flows seamlessly into the spacious family room, creating a comfortable central gathering space.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Open-concept layout
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTRALLY LOCATED ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $346,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $358,674.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-460 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,448 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seven Hills El (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 48% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,509 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,674
• List price: $346,990
• Delta: -3.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Summer Rain Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,102 (+1%)	6mo	$395,000	$188	59
175 Summer Rain Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,281 (+10%)	3mo	$393,000	$172	47
967 Halbert Dr	1.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (-7%)	11mo	$349,900	$180	40
304 Fm 718	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (-18%)	13mo	$274,900	$161	34
518 Berke St	0.95mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-18%)	2mo	$349,000	$205	33
529 Berke St	0.91mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-18%)	4mo	$349,000	$205	32
514 Berke St	0.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-18%)	18mo	$349,000	$205	20
512 Berke St	0.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-18%)	18mo	$349,000	$205	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-87,392
• Equity at exit: $53,479

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-113,684
• Equity at exit: $31,012

Cash invested: $100,429 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 40.5 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $337,990 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 78% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76071

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,881
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$448 /mo · $5,380/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,138

Max offer price $292,083

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-336	+0% $-460	+5% $-584	+10% $-708
Rent	-10% $-662	-5% $-561	+0% $-460	+5% $-359	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-280	-0.5pp $-369	base $-460	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,668
• Closing costs: $10,760
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
177 County Road 4917 Newark, TX	3.0	2.5	2387	$3,500	$1.47	0d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $346,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan named "Kingston"New construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,082 finished square feet)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $346,990 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $346,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $346,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $346,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $346,990 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $346,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $346,990 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $346,990 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $346,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $346,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $346,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $346,990 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $346,990 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $346,990 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $346,990 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $346,990 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $346,990 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $346,990 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $346,990 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $346,990 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $346,990 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $346,990 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $346,990 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $346,990 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $346,990 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $346,990 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $346,990 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $346,990 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $346,990 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $346,990 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $346,990 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $346,990 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $346,990 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $346,990 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $346,990 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $346,990 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $346,990 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $346,990 Active 39 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $346,990 Active 36 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $346,990 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $346,990 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $346,990 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $346,990 Active 31 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $346,990 Active 27 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $346,990 Active 26 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $346,990 Active 25 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $346,990 Active 22 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $346,990 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $346,990 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $346,990 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,091
• − Property taxes: −$5,380
• − Insurance: −$1,793
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − Depreciation: −$10,434
• Taxable loss: −$11,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,866
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Keeping appliances clean and in good condition can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Regular HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the HVAC system is functioning properly and can improve energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and tenants, and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Seven Hills El F TX #2,464/4,322 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Chisholm Trail Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Northwest H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Newark

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1448
• US rank: #24778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 71,620 people
• City population: 5,159
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,159
• Household income: $101,989
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.62%
• Current HPI: 201.8868
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $346,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan named "Kingston"New construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2,082 finished square feet)