5123 Willow Glen Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$99,497

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1950 10,044 sqft lot $69/sqft · 44% below area Est $177k · 44% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special. 3 bedroom home in a booming area. 11 minutes to downtown and close to all Houston has to offer. A blank canvas for someone to fulfill their vision

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $777 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,044/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,512 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.45%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,031
• List price: $99,497
• Delta: -43.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5123 Willow Glen Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,450 (0%)	0mo	$99,497	$69	100
7606 Darnay Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,385 (-4%)	2mo	$129,000	$93	79
5103 Northridge Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (-6%)	3mo	$195,900	$143	73
7609 Saint Lo Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-7%)	1mo	$185,000	$137	68
5225 Longmeadow St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (-11%)	2mo	$138,000	$107	63
5707 Lyndhurst Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$150	54
4821 Alvin St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-10%)	4mo	$174,000	$133	45
5835 Kenilwood Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,275 (-12%)	2mo	$108,000	$85	44
5042 Bataan Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (-6%)	5mo	$180,000	$132	43
8126 Marcy Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-14%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	42
5233 Dieppe St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,237 (-15%)	3mo	$35,000	$28	41
5639 Westover St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (-11%)	3mo	$230,000	$178	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $38,618
• Equity at exit: $14,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $120,081
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,859 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,297/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,061

Max offer price $99,497

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,874
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.14mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.20mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	0.22mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	0.22mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	43d	1	0.47mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	14d	1	0.51mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	0.59mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	43d	1	0.69mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	0.70mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	0.70mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	0.70mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	43d	1	0.71mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	43d	1	0.74mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	0.80mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	12d	1	0.83mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	13d	1	0.83mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	43d	1	0.83mi
5317 Chennault Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,999	$1.24	43d	1	0.85mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	0.85mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	43d	1	0.91mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	14d	1	0.97mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.98mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	43d	1	0.98mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	0.99mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	16d	1	1.04mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.07mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	17d	1	1.11mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	1.15mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	1.16mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.20mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	20d	1	1.24mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	20d	1	1.24mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	1.25mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,355	$3.92	2d	1	1.28mi
5835 Southmont St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	1.29mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	12d	1	1.30mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	1.33mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	43d	1	1.33mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	1.34mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $99,497 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,497 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,497 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   price $109,497 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Investor special. 3 bedroom home in a booming area. 11 minutes to downtown and close to all Houston has to offer. A blank canvas for someone to fulfill their vision

5. 2026-04-30
   price $119,497 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Investor special. 3 bedroom home in a booming area. 11 minutes to downtown and close to all Houston has to offer. A blank canvas for someone to fulfill their vision

6. 2026-04-14
   listed $129,497 Active 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Investor special. 3 bedroom home in a booming area. 11 minutes to downtown and close to all Houston has to offer. A blank canvas for someone to fulfill their vision

7. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,297 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,297 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,573
• − Property taxes: −$3,297
• − Insurance: −$497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$2,894
• Taxable income: $8,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,001
• After-tax cash flow: $7,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $109,497 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $119,497 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $129,497 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,297 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.