130 Carmel Woods Dr · Ellisville, MO 63021

$220,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,472 sqft · Condo public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1971 $369/mo HOA · 15% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AGENTS THIS CONDO WILL NOT LAST LONG. THREE BEDROOM TWO STORY SPACIOUS CONDO WITH 1472 SQ FEET. NEEDS YOUR SWEAT EQUITY TO MAKE IT HOME. PLEASE ALLOW 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR SELLER RESPONSE. "BANK OF AMERICA, N.A. EMPLOYEES AND EMPLOYEES' HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS OF THE BANK ARE PROHIBITED FROM PURCHASING THIS PROPERTY, WHETHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY."

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Updated kitchen
• White cabinetry

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED TOWNHOUSE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No home warranty reported
• HOA & community: Kiefer Creek Condo association; Monthly HOA fee of $369; HOA covers common area maintenance, roof, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Brick veneer exterior; Multi/split story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Common ground (HOA amenity)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished full basement with 8+ ft poured construction; Ceiling fans; Multi/split level layout; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Ellisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#48 in MO, #3,640 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ellisville Elem. (math 52% / reading 56%, grade C, #215 of 1,115 statewide, top 20%, 522 students, 11% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $220k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,887
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,615
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63021

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$369
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,255

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $254	+0% $192	+5% $129	+10% $67
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $93	+0% $192	+5% $290	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $248	base $192	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15970 Manchester Rd Ellisville, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,185	$3.33	0d	102	0.25mi
67 Strecker Rd Ellisville, MO	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,350	$2.05	13d	1	0.93mi
204 Hillsdale Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	45d	1	1.05mi
16318 Truman Rd Ellisville, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,730	$1.81	0d	3	1.38mi
920 Quail Terrace Ct Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,209	$2.27	0d	10	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $369 · $4,428/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $220,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-22
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-05-21
   listed $220,000 Active
6. 2013-04-12
   soldstatus 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   AGENTS THIS CONDO WILL NOT LAST LONG. THREE BEDROOM TWO STORY SPACIOUS CONDO WITH 1472 SQ FEET. NEEDS YOUR SWEAT EQUITY TO MAKE IT HOME. PLEASE ALLOW 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR SELLER RESPONSE. "BANK OF AMERICA, N.A. EMPLOYEES AND EMPLOYEES' HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS OF THE BANK ARE PROHIBITED FROM PURCHASING THIS PROPERTY, WHETHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY."

7. 2013-03-02
   listed $72,500 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   AGENTS THIS CONDO WILL NOT LAST LONG. THREE BEDROOM TWO STORY SPACIOUS CONDO WITH 1472 SQ FEET. NEEDS YOUR SWEAT EQUITY TO MAKE IT HOME. PLEASE ALLOW 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR SELLER RESPONSE. "BANK OF AMERICA, N.A. EMPLOYEES AND EMPLOYEES' HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS OF THE BANK ARE PROHIBITED FROM PURCHASING THIS PROPERTY, WHETHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY."

8. 2004-07-15
   soldstatus $131,500
9. 1999-05-28
   soldstatus $88,500
10. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − HOA: −$4,428
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $2,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #3640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 55,666
• Household income: $120,177
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 932.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.71%
• Current HPI: 221.4498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+148.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $220,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-12 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-02 Listed $72,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $131,500 Public Records
• 1999-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,004 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.