5449 Paschal Park · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$297,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · Land · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $158/sqft · 14% below area Est $348k · 14% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Joplin - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek El (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #602 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 765 students, 37% FRL); Church Hill Middle (math 64% / reading 60%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 748 students, 29% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1136 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,003 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,500
• List price: $297,999
• Delta: -14.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-47,736
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,553
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1136
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $297,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $291	-5% $207	+0% $122	+5% $38	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $26	+0% $122	+5% $218	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $198	base $122	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1233 Fox Wing Way New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2377	$2,750	$1.16	6d	1	0.08mi
105 Sky Country Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1895	$4,300	$2.27	45d	1	0.55mi
3629 Blue Cloud Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,295	$1.22	16d	1	0.82mi
301 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	45d	1	0.98mi
298 Tahoe Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	45d	1	0.99mi
3215 Northwest Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,625	$1.03	6d	1	1.36mi
635 NW Crossing Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,650	$1.12	6d	1	1.42mi
116 Radnor Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,450	$1.34	45d	1	1.45mi
620 Northgap Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   The Joplin - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $297,999 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   The Joplin - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-18
   price $298,999 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   The Joplin - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-13
   listed $353,999 New 686-char remark

   Show marketing remark (686 chars)

   The Joplin - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,453 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,801/yr (+$400/mo · 735.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$3,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $297,999 LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $298,999 LERA
• 2026-04-13 Listed $353,999 LERA

Property tax history

+20.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $652 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.