849 S Gun Barrel Ln Unit G7 · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1985 $127/sqft · 45% below area Est $257k · 45% under · waterfront $343/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this serene lakeside retreat in Gun Barrel City. This beautifully updated condominium offers breathtaking views of Cedar Creek Lake, creating the perfect escape from everyday living. Step inside to an inviting, modern interior featuring tasteful upgrades throughout. The recently renovated kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar, seamlessly opening to the main living area. A whitewashed stone fireplace serves as a charming focal point, adding warmth and character, while the dedicated dining area is ideal for entertaining. Enjoy peaceful lake views from the spacious private balcony—perfect for relaxing or hosting guests. Lifescape Condominiums provide an affordable, lock-and-leave lifestyle with desirable amenities, including a community pool for leisure and social gatherings. Ideally located near local marinas and boat storage facilities, this property offers easy access to a variety of water activities. Conveniently situated close to shopping and dining in Gun Barrel City and Mabank, and within the highly regarded Mabank ISD.

Key facts

• $343 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (20.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 486 students, 80% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,050 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,661
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -45.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-36,809
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-60,617
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$343
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,660

Max offer price $112,050

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-119	+0% $-158	+5% $-198	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-216	+0% $-158	+5% $-101	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-123	base $-158	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	45d	1	1.17mi
367 Box Rd Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,600	$1.32	45d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $343 · $4,116/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
19. 2026-04-07
    listed $140,000 Active 1113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1113 chars)

    Welcome to this serene lakeside retreat in Gun Barrel City. This beautifully updated condominium offers breathtaking views of Cedar Creek Lake, creating the perfect escape from everyday living. Step inside to an inviting, modern interior featuring tasteful upgrades throughout. The recently renovated kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar, seamlessly opening to the main living area. A whitewashed stone fireplace serves as a charming focal point, adding warmth and character, while the dedicated dining area is ideal for entertaining. Enjoy peaceful lake views from the spacious private balcony—perfect for relaxing or hosting guests. Lifescape Condominiums provide an affordable, lock-and-leave lifestyle with desirable amenities, including a community pool for leisure and social gatherings. Ideally located near local marinas and boat storage facilities, this property offers easy access to a variety of water activities. Conveniently situated close to shopping and dining in Gun Barrel City and Mabank, and within the highly regarded Mabank ISD.

20. 2024-09-27
    historical
21. 2024-08-20
    price $159,000
22. 2024-06-06
    price $169,900
23. 2024-03-30
    listed $179,900 Active
24. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus
26. 2020-10-05
    status Pending
27. 2020-05-04
    listed $129,900 Active
28. 2018-09-24
    soldstatus
29. 2018-03-16
    historical
30. 2017-11-20
    price $98,000
31. 2017-09-15
    listed $100,000 Active
32. 2017-08-20
    historical
33. 2017-07-21
    listed $110,000 Active
34. 2012-10-18
    soldstatus
35. 2003-10-08
    soldstatus
36. 2002-08-01
    soldstatus
37. 2001-06-13
    soldstatus
38. 2001-06-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$447/yr (+$37/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − HOA: −$4,116
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$4,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $-908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-30 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-10-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-05-04 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2018-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-11-20 Price Changed $98,000 NTREIS
• 2017-09-15 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2017-08-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-07-21 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2012-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,115 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.