17221 Smokey River Dr · Mono Vista, CA 95370

$295,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1978 0.52 ac lot Est $348k · 15% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With a newer roof, fresh exterior paint, newer vinyl flooring, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a comfortable kitchen and dining combo, a spacious deck with tree-lined views, a fenced yard, and ample parking, this home checks all the boxes for comfort, functionality, and peace of mind. Tucked away in the peaceful pines of Sonora, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer ready to step into homeownership or someone searching for a relaxing second home escape. Inside, the warm and inviting layout makes everyday living easy, while the fireplace creates the perfect setting for cozy evenings. Step outside to unwind on the private deck, enjoy the quiet

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Crystal Falls Homeowners Association; Quarterly HOA fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1978
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard; Side yard; Low-maintenance yard; Deck and enclosed deck; On-site storage; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (includes bedroom count within room total)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms total — 2 full and 1 partial
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood stove; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Storage; Bonus room; Free-standing wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an inside room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($459/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Mono Vista — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#793 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $295k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,240 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17221 Smokey River Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$297,213	$197	100
17223 Nile River Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+8%)	1mo	$350,000	$215	71
17272 Nile River Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-6%)	9mo	$297,000	$209	70
22420 E Rhine River Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+7%)	4mo	$399,000	$247	70
17301 Smokey Riv	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+10%)	9mo	$379,000	$228	68
22447 Colorado River Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	14mo	$355,000	$247	68
22502 S Colorado River Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+13%)	9mo	$335,000	$196	61
22528 E Rhine River Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-11%)	7mo	$308,000	$230	60
21984 Crystal Falls Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+2%)	7mo	$337,000	$218	58
22101 Longeway Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+2%)	5mo	$362,000	$235	57
22192 Crystal Falls Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-9%)	11mo	$369,000	$269	52
16853 E Meadow Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	14mo	$336,500	$234	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,463
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-36,836
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,430/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19011 Middle Camp Rd Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,295	$1.45	13d	1	0.15mi
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	23d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   status Active
3. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $295,000 Active
5. 1999-04-23
   soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,430 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 56.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,430
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $1,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soulsbyville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637320
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,518
• Composite: 30.5/100
• National rank: #6217
• State rank: #272 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mono Vista

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #22675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mono Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+255.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-25 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $295,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,430 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.