Is ALDER Plan in Lavon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.5% cap rate and $-438/mo modeled cash flow at a $246,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for ALDER Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,042/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.89

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.0/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.9/10.0
DSCR +1.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$246,990

ALDER Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 211 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Alder plan from D. R Horton, one of our new duplex floorplans featuring a seamless blend of modern design and functionality at our new home community Elevon in Lavon, TX. This charming duplex floorplan at Elevon offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the duplex includes beautiful brick and stone elevation and several divided light windows. Enter the home through the covered front porch. This leads you into a foyer entry, that brings you right into the kitchen that features quality kitchen cabinets with hidden hinges and crown moldings, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes an island, built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. Next to the kitchen is a powder bathroom for convenience downstairs. Both bedrooms are located upstairs along with the utility room and the primary and secondary bathrooms. The large primary bedroom features an elongated vanity and a non-framed mirror. The primary bathroom also includes a spacious walk-in closet. This plan includes ceramic tile flooring in all bathrooms, laminate wood plank in living areas, and carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified townhome. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

Covered front porch
Powder bathroom
Large pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (5.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (17.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $204k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 931 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,186 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.69% ✗
Cap rate: 4.52%
Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
DSCR: 0.72
GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $296,791
List price: $246,990
Delta: -16.78%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 Cozy Grns	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (+17%)	4mo	$249,900	$178	56
654 Walkabout Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,413 (+17%)	3mo	$267,990	$190	50
703 Walkabout Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (+19%)	6mo	$304,490	$213	49
701 Chipper Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (+19%)	7mo	$278,990	$195	45
626 Divine Gardens Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (+19%)	9mo	$325,990	$228	44
601 Cherish Day Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (+19%)	13mo	$289,990	$203	43
706 Walkabout Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (+17%)	12mo	$275,990	$196	42
595 Cherish Day Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (+17%)	14mo	$295,990	$211	42
613 Cherish Day Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (+17%)	14mo	$295,990	$211	42
833 Cedar St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+5%)	19mo	$370,000	$294	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -27.2%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-75,958
Equity at exit: $44,253

10-year hold

IRR: -25.1%
Equity multiple: -0.23×
Total profit: $-101,938
Equity at exit: $25,661

Cash invested: $83,102 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 17 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 14.6 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $294,990 ($206/sqft)
Median days on market: 141 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +19.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

Home prices YoY: -9.9%
Active inventory: 931
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,042 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,556
Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,452/yr
Insurance: −$124
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $233,414

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-335	+0% $-438	+5% $-541	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-519	+0% $-438	+5% $-357	+10% $-277
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-363	base $-438	+0.5pp $-515	+1.0pp $-593

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,198
Closing costs: $8,904
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	0d	1	0.01mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	89d	1	0.10mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	50d	1	0.31mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	59d	1	0.32mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,622	$1.60	0d	63	0.35mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	98d	1	0.36mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	34d	1	0.36mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$1,862	$1.63	0d	21	0.89mi
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,398	$1.16	41d	1	0.97mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 818 Nevada, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$1,149	$1.35	139d	1	0.97mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	139d	1	0.97mi
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,599	$1.33	10d	1	0.97mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 9107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,499	$1.24	39d	1	1.22mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 9106 Lavon, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$1,235	$1.45	39d	1	1.22mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 6107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,475	$1.22	7d	1	1.22mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 5106 Lavon, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$1,099	$1.29	7d	1	1.22mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$1,958	$2.25	0d	70	1.38mi
200 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,855	$2.12	3d	6	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $246,990 Active 211 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $246,990 Active 210 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $246,990 Active 209 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $246,990 Active 208 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $246,990 Active 207 DOM
2026-09-19

pricedays on market $246,990 Active 206 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $244,990 Active 205 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $244,990 Active 204 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $244,990 Active 203 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $244,990 Active 201 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $244,990 Active 200 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $244,990 Active 199 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $244,990 Active 198 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $244,990 Active 192 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $244,990 Active 191 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $244,990 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $244,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $244,990 Active 184 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $244,990 Active 183 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $244,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $244,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $244,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $244,990 Active 179 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $244,990 Active 178 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $244,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $244,990 Active 176 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $244,990 Active 175 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $244,990 Active 174 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $244,990 Active 173 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $244,990 Active 172 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $244,990 Active 171 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $244,990 Active 170 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $244,990 Active 169 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $244,990 Active 168 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $244,990 Active 167 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $244,990 Active 166 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $244,990 Active 165 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $244,990 Active 164 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $244,990 Active 162 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $244,990 Active 161 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $244,990 Active 160 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $244,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $244,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $244,990 Active 154 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $244,990 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $244,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $244,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $244,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $244,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $244,990 Active 146 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,502
− Mortgage interest: −$16,625
− Property taxes: −$4,452
− Insurance: −$1,484
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
− Management: −$1,960
− Depreciation: −$8,634
Taxable loss: −$10,613

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,547
After-tax cash flow: $-2,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Alder plan from D. R. Horton is in excellent condition with modern design and quality finishes. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Ensures the kitchen remains in top condition for potential buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Community ISD
NCES district ID: 4814850
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $71,841
Composite: 31.58/100
National rank: #5951
State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

Score: 66/100
State rank: #588
US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population: 6,989
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 6,989
Household income: $132,101
Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
Current HPI: 221.0
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-02-25 Listed $244,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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