2048 Stage Coach Rd · Nathalie, VA 24577

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 878 Days on market

Built 1973 1.90 ac lot $139/sqft · 11% below area Est $186k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If need a starter home , this is the place. The home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath , eat-in- kitchen all appliances and large living room. There is also large deck with full basement too.

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 878 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#551 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Halifax County Public School District (town): math 29% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #116 of 131 in VA (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sydnor Jennings Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 192 students, 92% FRL); Halifax County Middle (math 27% / reading 60%, grade D, #285 of 342 statewide, top 84%, 925 students, 92% FRL); Halifax County High (math 40% / reading 69%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,397 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 58% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Halifax County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Halifax County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 878 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,049 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 878 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.80%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,599
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -11.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $41,834
• Equity at exit: $110,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $130,759
• Equity at exit: $205,553

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24577

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $132,339

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-138	+0% $-185	+5% $-232	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-226	+0% $-185	+5% $-144	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-143	base $-185	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 878 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 877 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 875 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 874 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 873 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 872 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 871 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 870 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 869 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 866 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 865 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 864 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 863 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 860 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 859 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 858 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 857 DOM
18. 2026-01-19
    status Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    If need a starter home , this is the place. The home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath , eat-in- kitchen all appliances and large living room. There is also large deck with full basement too.

19. 2025-01-07
    price $165,000 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    If need a starter home , this is the place. The home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath , eat-in- kitchen all appliances and large living room. There is also large deck with full basement too.

20. 2024-05-27
    status Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    If need a starter home , this is the place. The home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath , eat-in- kitchen all appliances and large living room. There is also large deck with full basement too.

21. 2023-12-07
    listed $175,000 Active 185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (185 chars)

    If need a starter home , this is the place. The home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath , eat-in- kitchen all appliances and large living room. There is also large deck with full basement too.

22. 2022-09-01
    soldstatus $164,000
23. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus $164,000 Closed 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home on over an acre of land in Halifax County is ready for new owners. This home features a large living room, spacious eat in kitchen with lots of cabinets, a full unfinished basement and so much more. Call today to schedule your private showing.

24. 2022-05-18
    status Pending 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home on over an acre of land in Halifax County is ready for new owners. This home features a large living room, spacious eat in kitchen with lots of cabinets, a full unfinished basement and so much more. Call today to schedule your private showing.

25. 2022-05-02
    listed $169,900 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home on over an acre of land in Halifax County is ready for new owners. This home features a large living room, spacious eat in kitchen with lots of cabinets, a full unfinished basement and so much more. Call today to schedule your private showing.

26. 2007-10-01
    soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 73.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Halifax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -51.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,137
• Composite: 36.36/100
• National rank: #4687
• State rank: #116 of 131 in VA

Livability — Nathalie

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #25884

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,701

Population outlook (Halifax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,892 people
• By 2030: 31,438 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 28,350 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 25,553 · -22.3%
• By 2075: 20,217 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 14,645 · -55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 37% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Polish 6% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Halifax

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 39.1% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Current HPI: 208.5645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+159.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Relisted — SPLLAR
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $165,000 SPLLAR
• 2024-05-27 Relisted — SPLLAR
• 2023-12-07 Listed $175,000 SPLLAR
• 2022-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-30 Sold (MLS) $164,000 LMLS
• 2022-05-18 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $169,900 LMLS
• 2007-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.