25799 John Wayne Ct · Patton Village, TX 77372

$289,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,868 sqft · Land · 8 Days on market

Built 2025 10,219 sqft lot $155/sqft · 13% above area Est $256k · 13% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your forever home in the master-planned Hill & Dale Ranch community in Splendora! This beautifully crafted 5-bed, 2.5-bath Home Creations Holly plan combines open living, designer finishes, and smart space for everyday living and entertaining. Backed by 45+ years of family-owned homebuilding experience, Home Creations builds for homeowners — not shareholders — delivering quality you can feel and trust. Enjoy one of the highest energy efficiency homes in the Houston market, saving you on utility bills while keeping your family comfortable. Built with enhanced structural integrity and hurricane safety features most builders skip, this home offers peace of mind in every season. With excellent schools, outdoor recreation, and easy access to Highway 59 and the Grand Parkway, your lifestyle elevates every day. Don’t miss this rare opportunity — homes like this go fast! Schedule your showing today and start living better with Home Creations.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Excellent schools
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY HOMES
• HURRICANE SAFETY FEATURES
• EXCELLENT SCHOOLS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 59

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $246,446 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,612
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 13.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-32,865
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,805
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,181

Max offer price $289,990

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$1,983	$1.01	10d	1	0.10mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	4d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $289,990 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    status Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Discover your forever home in the master-planned Hill & Dale Ranch community in Splendora! This beautifully crafted 5-bed, 2.5-bath Home Creations Holly plan combines open living, designer finishes, and smart space for everyday living and entertaining. Backed by 45+ years of family-owned homebuilding experience, Home Creations builds for homeowners — not shareholders — delivering quality you can feel and trust. Enjoy one of the highest energy efficiency homes in the Houston market, saving you on utility bills while keeping your family comfortable. Built with enhanced structural integrity and hurricane safety features most builders skip, this home offers peace of mind in every season. With excellent schools, outdoor recreation, and easy access to Highway 59 and the Grand Parkway, your lifestyle elevates every day. Don’t miss this rare opportunity — homes like this go fast! Schedule your showing today and start living better with Home Creations.

16. 2026-03-18
    status Pending 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Discover your forever home in the master-planned Hill & Dale Ranch community in Splendora! This beautifully crafted 5-bed, 2.5-bath Home Creations Holly plan combines open living, designer finishes, and smart space for everyday living and entertaining. Backed by 45+ years of family-owned homebuilding experience, Home Creations builds for homeowners — not shareholders — delivering quality you can feel and trust. Enjoy one of the highest energy efficiency homes in the Houston market, saving you on utility bills while keeping your family comfortable. Built with enhanced structural integrity and hurricane safety features most builders skip, this home offers peace of mind in every season. With excellent schools, outdoor recreation, and easy access to Highway 59 and the Grand Parkway, your lifestyle elevates every day. Don’t miss this rare opportunity — homes like this go fast! Schedule your showing today and start living better with Home Creations.

17. 2026-02-19
    listed $289,990 Active 985-char remark

    Show marketing remark (985 chars)

    Discover your forever home in the master-planned Hill & Dale Ranch community in Splendora! This beautifully crafted 5-bed, 2.5-bath Home Creations Holly plan combines open living, designer finishes, and smart space for everyday living and entertaining. Backed by 45+ years of family-owned homebuilding experience, Home Creations builds for homeowners — not shareholders — delivering quality you can feel and trust. Enjoy one of the highest energy efficiency homes in the Houston market, saving you on utility bills while keeping your family comfortable. Built with enhanced structural integrity and hurricane safety features most builders skip, this home offers peace of mind in every season. With excellent schools, outdoor recreation, and easy access to Highway 59 and the Grand Parkway, your lifestyle elevates every day. Don’t miss this rare opportunity — homes like this go fast! Schedule your showing today and start living better with Home Creations.

18. 2025-12-03
    historical
19. 2025-11-21
    status Active
20. 2025-10-25
    historical
21. 2025-05-18
    listed $288,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,630/yr (+$386/mo · 683.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$2,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $3,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listed $288,490 HARMLS

Property tax history

+67.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $677 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.