Canon Plan · Cibolo, TX 78124

$319,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,780 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 190 days

🏗️ New construction. The $319,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $486,676.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.44%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,676
• List price: $319,999
• Delta: -34.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1831 Lower Seguin	0.24mi	5/2.5	2,547 (-8%)	23mo	$650,000	$255	54
123 Colette	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,402 (-14%)	1mo	$575,000	$239	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-147,115
• Equity at exit: $72,565

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-215,869
• Equity at exit: $42,079

Cash invested: $136,269 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$608 /mo · $7,300/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-1,072

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,257

Max offer price $331,511

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,669
• Closing costs: $14,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,999 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,999 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,999 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,999 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,999 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,999 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,999 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,999 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,999 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,999 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,999 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,999 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,999 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,999 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $319,999 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $322,999 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

17. 2026-02-25
    price $332,999 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

18. 2026-02-17
    price $337,999 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

19. 2025-12-10
    listed $346,999 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,261
• − Property taxes: −$7,300
• − Insurance: −$2,433
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$14,158
• Taxable loss: −$21,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can increase both resale and rental value by improving energy efficiency and comfort.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can increase both resale and rental value by improving energy efficiency and comfort. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $319,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $322,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $332,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $337,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $346,999 Zillow