Canon Plan · Marion, TX 78124

$323,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,780 sqft · SingleFamily · 288 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 287 days

🏗️ New construction. The $323,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $486,408.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $285k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 667 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,119 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,408
• List price: $323,999
• Delta: -33.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Nightingale Ave	0.86mi	5/4.0	2,721 (-2%)	0mo	$399,525	$147	57
502 Nightingale Ave	0.86mi	5/4.0	2,721 (-2%)	3mo	$394,600	$145	55
1508 Whistlers Way	0.83mi	5/4.0	2,721 (-2%)	3mo	$399,595	$147	55
510 Nightingale Ave	0.86mi	6/4.0 (+1)	2,703 (-3%)	2mo	$399,440	$148	50
443 White Heron Way	0.89mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,601 (-6%)	1mo	$334,331	$129	48
445 Raven Row	0.95mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,601 (-6%)	2mo	$334,631	$129	47
475 White Heron Way	0.90mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,601 (-6%)	3mo	$339,271	$130	47
1131 Crane Ct	0.97mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,601 (-6%)	3mo	$344,331	$132	47
506 Nightingale Ave	0.86mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,496 (-10%)	2mo	$369,475	$148	40
438 White Heron Way	0.92mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,331 (-16%)	0mo	$289,930	$124	35
428 Raven Row	0.97mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,331 (-16%)	2mo	$309,530	$133	33
421 Raven Row	0.94mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-18%)	2mo	$304,270	$133	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-146,953
• Equity at exit: $72,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-215,576
• Equity at exit: $42,056

Cash invested: $136,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,990 ($132/sqft)
• Median days on market: 185 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +32.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$608 /mo · $7,296/yr
• Insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,255

Max offer price $331,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-734	-5% $-902	+0% $-1,070	+5% $-1,239	+10% $-1,407
Rent	-10% $-1,300	-5% $-1,185	+0% $-1,070	+5% $-956	+10% $-841
Rate	-1.0pp $-826	-0.5pp $-947	base $-1,070	+0.5pp $-1,196	+1.0pp $-1,325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,602
• Closing costs: $14,592
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	139d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $323,999 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $323,999 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $323,999 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $323,999 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $323,999 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $323,999 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $323,999 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $323,999 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $323,999 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $323,999 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $323,999 Active 278 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    price $323,999 Active 277 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $322,999 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $322,999 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $322,999 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $322,999 Active 269 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $322,999 Active 268 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $322,999 Active 267 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $322,999 Active 264 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $322,999 Active 263 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $322,999 Active 262 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $322,999 Active 261 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $322,999 Active 260 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $322,999 Active 258 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $322,999 Active 257 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $322,999 Active 256 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $322,999 Active 255 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $322,999 Active 254 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $322,999 Active 253 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $322,999 Active 252 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $322,999 Active 251 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $322,999 Active 250 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $322,999 Active 249 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $322,999 Active 248 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $322,999 Active 247 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $322,999 Active 246 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $322,999 Active 245 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $322,999 Active 244 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $322,999 Active 243 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $322,999 Active 242 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $322,999 Active 241 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $322,999 Active 239 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $322,999 Active 238 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $322,999 Active 237 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $322,999 Active 236 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $322,999 Active 233 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $322,999 Active 232 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $322,999 Active 231 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $322,999 Active 230 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $322,999 Active 228 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,246
• − Property taxes: −$7,296
• − Insurance: −$2,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$14,150
• Taxable loss: −$21,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,254
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can increase both resale and rental value by improving energy efficiency and comfort. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El/bert Karrer Campus D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $319,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $322,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $332,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $337,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $346,999 Zillow