18717 Mill Villa Rd. #340 #340 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $95k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This manufactured home is across the street walk to the Clubhouse. It has a large deck leading to the back yard which has a terrific view. Rare 3 bedroom, family room and living room. Very well maintained. Appealing colors and very open floor plan. It offers 1440 sq. ft. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and shed remain. The roof is approximately 10 years.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Great views
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• GREAT VIEWS
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING ROOMS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• AMPLE STORAGE
• GAS RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: Mill Villa Estates; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Community pool and spa; Activities available; RV storage; Pets allowed: contact park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 or more spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide mobile home; Single-story (no steps to entry)
• Construction: Wood siding; Crawl space foundation; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Deck; Covered deck; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Laminate countertops; Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Showers over tubs; Solid surface counters; Primary bathroom includes closet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Accessible approach with ramp; No additional rooms; Window coverings; Laundry facility on main entry level; No steps to entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220-volt outlet; Cabinets; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $961 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $65k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.37%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	82
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	75
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	75
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $50,669
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $122,883
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $157/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $961

Break-even live

Break-even rent $482

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $65,000
18. 2026-03-30
    price $75,000
19. 2026-02-11
    price $79,000
20. 2026-01-06
    price $84,000
21. 2025-11-14
    listed $89,000 Active
22. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus $39,000 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This manufactured home is across the street walk to the Clubhouse. It has a large deck leading to the back yard which has a terrific view. Rare 3 bedroom, family room and living room. Very well maintained. Appealing colors and very open floor plan. It offers 1440 sq. ft. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and shed remain. The roof is approximately 10 years.

23. 2014-07-04
    listed $42,900 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    This manufactured home is across the street walk to the Clubhouse. It has a large deck leading to the back yard which has a terrific view. Rare 3 bedroom, family room and living room. Very well maintained. Appealing colors and very open floor plan. It offers 1440 sq. ft. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and shed remain. The roof is approximately 10 years.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $157 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 215.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$157
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $11,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $8,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+51.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $65,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $75,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $79,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $84,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-14 Listed $89,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $39,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-07-04 Listed $42,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $157 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.