225 NE Ernst #49 · Oak Harbor, WA 98277

$58,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 955 sqft · Manufactured public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1978 $61/sqft · 24% below area Est $76k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 2 bedroom 1.5 bath home in Western Village 55+ community. Level flat park within easy walking distance to shops and services. Bring your personal touches to make this home sparkle again. Come enjoy all that this area has to offer. The clubhouse is within walking distance. This home is located on the the third street in the park. Two parking spots in the driveway with easy access to the entry door. Pets ok but park has size restrictions, two pets maximum. Park approval required. Seller is offering $5700 for FLOORING CREDIT! Ask about estimate.

Key facts

• Level flat park
• Two parking spots
• Pets ok

Tags

• LEVEL FLAT PARK
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO CLUBHOUSE
• TWO PARKING SPOTS
• EASY ACCESS TO ENTRY DOOR
• PETS OK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 2.7% in Oak Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#149 in WA, #3,120 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+.
• Oak Harbor School District (town): math 49% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #98 of 291 in WA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.56%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,310
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -23.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 NE Ernst St #73	0.12mi	2/2.0	976 (+2%)	2mo	$126,900	$130	87
225 NE Ernst St #36	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+0%)	15mo	$120,000	$125	84
225 NE Ernst St #61	0.12mi	2/1.0	928 (-3%)	6mo	$90,000	$97	82
225 NE Ernst #52	0.12mi	2/1.0	960 (+0%)	22mo	$54,000	$56	73
150 NE 7th Ave #8	0.27mi	2/2.0	924 (-3%)	21mo	$47,500	$51	63
225 NE Ernst St #17	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+11%)	23mo	$160,000	$152	58
1320 N Oak Harbor St #165	0.61mi	2/1.0	910 (-5%)	14mo	$64,000	$70	50
1320 N Oak Harbor St #140	0.61mi	2/2.0	924 (-3%)	21mo	$53,245	$58	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $60,925
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.65×
• Total profit: $156,688
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98277

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $1,036

Break-even live

Break-even rent $468

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
865 N Oak Harbor St Unit 103 Oak Harbor, WA	1.0	1.0	555	$1,450	$2.61	43d	1	0.34mi
865 N Oak Harbor St Unit 203 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,565	$2.09	43d	1	0.34mi
395 S Oak Harbor St Unit 207 [[?]165] Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,030	$2.03	43d	1	0.43mi
310 SE Midway Blvd Unit 207 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	791	$1,640	$2.07	43d	1	0.63mi
310 SE Midway Blvd Unit [?]111 Oak Harbor, WA	1.0	1.0	558	$1,390	$2.49	43d	1	0.63mi
310 SE Midway Blvd Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,590	$2.45	20d	1	0.63mi
141 SW 6th Ave Unit D101 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	982	$1,915	$1.95	43d	1	0.65mi
33010 State Route 20 Unit B Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,440	$2.22	43d	1	0.67mi
413 SE Maylor St Apt 202 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,650	$1.87	43d	1	0.68mi
1051 SE 8th Ave Unit C201 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,500	$1.55	43d	1	0.79mi
1661 NE 16th Ave Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,840	$2.23	2d	1	1.00mi
2920 Heller Rd Unit 54-O Oak Harbor, WA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,765	$2.94	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $58,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $58,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,000 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,000 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,000 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $58,000
17. 2026-03-20
    price $62,000
18. 2026-02-05
    price $64,000
19. 2025-12-15
    listed $69,000 Active
20. 2023-09-06
    soldstatus $62,500
21. 2023-09-06
    listed $62,500
22. 1998-08-18
    soldstatus $19,500
23. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $12,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,932
• After-tax cash flow: $9,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oak Harbor School District
• NCES district ID: 5305940
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,606
• Composite: 49.07/100
• National rank: #4427
• State rank: #98 of 291 in WA

Livability — Oak Harbor

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #3120

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Harbor, WA
• County: Island County · 71,196 people
• City population: 40,917
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,917
• Household income: $83,253
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,019 people
• By 2030: 81,329 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 78,552 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 77,042 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 80,799 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 84,451 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Island

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 56.8% · R 40.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+12.0 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -608.47%
• Current HPI: 188.2874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.36%
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+190.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $58,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $62,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $64,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Listed $69,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Listed $62,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Sold (MLS) $62,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $501 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.