3018 Clinton St · Abilene, TX 79603

$37,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1958 7,144 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a fixer upper. Needs lots of work. Seller selling as is and will not make any repairs. If utilities required for inspection buyer must pay to turn them on. Water is on but has a leak somewhere in the house so it is shut off at the meter. Do not know where the leak is located.

Key facts

• 7,144 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.2% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ortiz El (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 484 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 57% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 33% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Abilene ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+40.2%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $262 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,763 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.73%
• DSCR: 6.55
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,456
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2841 Old Anson Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0	932 (+3%)	0mo	$150,000	$161	84
2159 Anson Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	832 (-8%)	8mo	$69,900	$84	73
1225 Anson Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	875 (-3%)	6mo	$140,000	$160	65
3626 Grape St	0.49mi	2/1.0	960 (+6%)	5mo	$85,000	$89	62
2781 Orange St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	880 (-3%)	21mo	$49,900	$57	51
2581 Grape St	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+12%)	16mo	$79,900	$79	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.93×
• Total profit: $73,535
• Equity at exit: $5,651

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.60×
• Total profit: $197,367
• Equity at exit: $3,277

Cash invested: $10,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79603

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 40.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,008/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $37,900

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,475
• Closing costs: $1,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2841 Old Anson Rd Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	932	$2,000	$2.15	13d	1	0.19mi
2410 N Willis St Abilene, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$1,100	$1.71	13d	1	1.47mi
2410 N Willis St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,200	$1.39	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $37,900
3. 2026-03-27
   price $38,350
4. 2026-03-19
   price $38,450
5. 2026-03-13
   price $38,900
6. 2026-03-02
   listed $39,900 Active
7. 2021-07-13
   soldstatus
8. 2021-07-12
   soldstatus Sold 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   This is a fixer upper. Needs lots of work. Seller selling as is and will not make any repairs. If utilities required for inspection buyer must pay to turn them on. Water is on but has a leak somewhere in the house so it is shut off at the meter. Do not know where the leak is located.

9. 2021-06-24
   status Pending 284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (284 chars)

   This is a fixer upper. Needs lots of work. Seller selling as is and will not make any repairs. If utilities required for inspection buyer must pay to turn them on. Water is on but has a leak somewhere in the house so it is shut off at the meter. Do not know where the leak is located.

10. 2021-06-21
    listed $28,000 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    This is a fixer upper. Needs lots of work. Seller selling as is and will not make any repairs. If utilities required for inspection buyer must pay to turn them on. Water is on but has a leak somewhere in the house so it is shut off at the meter. Do not know where the leak is located.

11. 1996-08-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,123
• − Property taxes: −$1,008
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$1,103
• Taxable income: $13,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,230
• After-tax cash flow: $10,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,548
• Household income: $53,513
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 24% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.84%
• Current HPI: 184.8875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 40.19%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+35.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $37,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $38,350 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $38,450 NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $38,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $39,900 NTREIS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-06-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-06-21 Listed $28,000 NTREIS
• 1996-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.