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11826 Dumaine Valley Rd
D+ Composite 47.84
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.6/30.0
  • 1% rule +4.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.3/10.0
  • Livability +4.0/5.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.8/5.0
  • DSCR +1.7/10.0

$235,000

11826 Dumaine Valley Rd · Riverview, FL 33579
3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 1,763 sqft lot Garage $141/sqft · 21% below area Est $298k · 21% under $351/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. This contemporary two-story townhome enjoys a free-flowing layout among the main-floor kitchen, Great Room and covered patio. The top floor features the spacious owner’s suite, two secondary bedrooms and a versatile loft space perfect as a home office or additional shared living area. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

Key facts

  • Dual sinks
  • Walk-in closet
  • Community amenities

Tags

POND VIEWSCOVERED LANAIWALK-IN CLOSETDUAL SINKSWALK-IN SHOWERCOMMUNITY AMENITIES

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (26.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (1.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $174k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
  • Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Summerfield Elementary School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 807 students, 60% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $173,852 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.98%
Cap rate
4.86%
Cash-on-cash
-5.10%
DSCR
0.77
GRM
8.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$297,981
List price
$235,000
Delta
-21.14%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
8 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
12015 Butler Woods Cir 0.49mi 3/2.0 1,544 (-8%) 1mo $295,000 $191 59
11833 Frost Aster Dr 0.29mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,040 (+22%) 0mo $415,000 $203 56
11925 Cross Vine Dr 0.31mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,046 (+22%) 0mo $390,000 $191 52
11304 Plumtree Ct 1.25mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,734 (+4%) 0mo $350,000 $202 49
13464 Fladgate Mark Dr 1.01mi 4/3.0 (+1) 1,789 (+7%) 0mo $330,000 $184 48
13216 Waterleaf Garden Cir 0.39mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,046 (+22%) 0mo $455,000 $222 47
12646 Belcroft Dr 0.81mi 3/2.0 1,484 (-11%) 0mo $299,000 $201 42
12373 Marshland St 1.29mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,805 (+8%) 1mo $391,000 $217 41
12018 Cardinal Flower Dr 0.70mi 3/2.0 1,971 (+18%) 0mo $373,000 $189 38
11924 Frost Aster Dr 0.60mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,049 (+23%) 7mo $388,000 $189 36
13410 Graham Yarden Dr 0.74mi 4/3.0 (+1) 1,927 (+15%) 2mo $360,000 $187 34
11767 Winterset Cove Dr 1.26mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,056 (+23%) 3mo $379,900 $185 32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.1%
Equity multiple
0.27×
Total profit
$-47,953
Equity at exit
$52,013
10-year hold
IRR
-14.1%
Equity multiple
-0.07×
Total profit
$-70,408
Equity at exit
$50,697

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
3 active · 1 under contract
Median asking
$275,000 ($165/sqft)
Median days on market
39 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
+8.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33579

Home prices YoY
-0.6%
Rents YoY
1.2%
Active inventory
535
Price-to-rent
8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,309 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,232
Tax from tax record
$423 /mo · $5,071/yr
Insurance
$98
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$351
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$485
Net cashflow
$-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,747
Max offer price $173,852
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-213 -5% $-280 +0% $-346 +5% $-413 +10% $-479
Rent -10% $-529 -5% $-437 +0% $-346 +5% $-255 +10% $-164
Rate -1.0pp $-228 -0.5pp $-286 base $-346 +0.5pp $-407 +1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$58,750
Closing costs
$7,050
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
11830 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1634 $1,900 $1.16 14d 1 0.02mi
11830 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1634 $1,900 $1.16 16d 1 0.02mi
11859 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL 2.0 2.5 1513 $1,950 $1.29 70d 1 0.03mi
11736 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL 3.0 2.5 1670 $1,900 $1.14 34d 1 0.06mi
11634 Addison Chase Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1715 $2,281 $1.33 15d 1 0.21mi
13228 Pike Lake Dr Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1129 $1,839 $1.63 42d 1 0.24mi
12115 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1234 $1,850 $1.50 54d 1 0.32mi
12201 Matchfield Way Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1522 $1,595 $1.05 67d 1 0.32mi
12101 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1511 $1,926 $1.27 8d 1 0.34mi
13020 Avalon Crest Ct Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1759 $2,480 $1.41 8d 1 0.34mi
12116 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1289 $1,825 $1.42 70d 1 0.35mi
12118 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1462 $1,910 $1.31 8d 1 0.35mi
13230 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1270 $1,830 $1.44 67d 1 0.37mi
13232 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1521 $2,049 $1.35 22d 1 0.38mi
13263 Evening Sunset Ln Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1959 $2,200 $1.12 54d 1 0.38mi
13239 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1086 $2,049 $1.89 10d 1 0.39mi
13516 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.5 2146 $2,495 $1.16 8d 1 0.39mi
13204 Waterleaf Garden Cir Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 2046 $3,600 $1.76 54d 1 0.39mi
13244 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1234 $1,895 $1.54 8d 1 0.42mi
12026 Bridge Point Ln Riverview, FL 3.0 2.5 1780 $2,180 $1.22 73d 1 0.42mi
13346 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1086 $1,829 $1.68 30d 1 0.43mi
12010 Hampshire Field Ct Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1544 $1,989 $1.29 22d 1 0.46mi
13331 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1546 $2,100 $1.36 10d 1 0.47mi
13314 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1465 $1,895 $1.29 64d 1 0.49mi
11427 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1916 $2,185 $1.14 25d 1 0.49mi
12019 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1693 $2,230 $1.32 51d 1 0.50mi
11424 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1839 $2,165 $1.18 62d 1 0.52mi
12008 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1544 $2,040 $1.32 18d 1 0.53mi
11810 Tetrafin Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 2184 $2,600 $1.19 29d 1 0.56mi
11701 Brenford Crest Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1507 $1,999 $1.33 25d 1 0.56mi
11903 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL 3.0 2.5 1780 $1,999 $1.12 22d 1 0.59mi
12329 Cedarfield Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1685 $2,169 $1.29 17d 1 0.65mi
11931 Lark Song Loop Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1302 $2,050 $1.57 73d 1 0.65mi
11737 Summer Springs Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 3.0 2162 $2,581 $1.19 15d 1 0.66mi
11519 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1936 $2,600 $1.34 73d 1 0.70mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1832 $3,800 $2.07 48d 1 0.72mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 2.0 1850 $3,800 $2.05 67d 1 0.72mi
12932 Fieldmoor Ct Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1355 $1,795 $1.32 23d 1 0.74mi
12932 Fieldmoor Ct Riverview, FL 3.0 2.0 1355 $1,795 $1.32 42d 1 0.74mi
13185 Green Violet Dr Riverview, FL 4.0 3.0 1908 $2,459 $1.29 54d 1 0.74mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Total annual fees: $4,216Total monthly fees: $351.33
Financial info
Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Has HOA (Townes At Summerfield Creek Assoc. INC and Summerfield Master Community Assoc.)Monthly HOA: $304Quarterly association fee: $142Association fees cover pool, building maintenance, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities and waterPets allowed: cats and dogsCommunity amenities: clubhouse, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 car)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connected
Home design
Residential townhouseTwo storiesFaces southeastEntry level: Two-level home
Construction
Block, concrete, stucco and other construction materialsShingle roofOther roof materialConcrete perimeter and slab foundationBuilt with durable materials
Exterior features
Hurricane shuttersSidewalkSliding doorsPond view

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorOther appliance(s)
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenOpen floorplanThermostatWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility
Laundry roomWasherDryer

Listing history 45 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 58 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 57 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 54 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    statusdays on market $235,000 Active 51 DOM
  9. 2026-07-07
    status $235,000 Pending 50 DOM
  10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
  11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $235,000 Active 49 DOM
  12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
  13. 2026-07-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
  14. 2026-07-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
  15. 2026-07-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
  16. 2026-07-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 44 DOM
  17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 43 DOM
  18. 2026-06-29
    days on market $235,000 Active 42 DOM
  19. 2026-06-28
    days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
  20. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
  21. 2026-06-26
    days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
  22. 2026-06-24
    days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
  23. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
  24. 2026-06-21
    days on market $259,000 Active 34 DOM
  25. 2026-06-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 31 DOM
  26. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,000 Active 30 DOM
  27. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
  28. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,000 Active 28 DOM
  29. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 26 DOM
  30. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 25 DOM
  31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 22 DOM
  32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 21 DOM
  33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 20 DOM
  34. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 17 DOM
  35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 16 DOM
  36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 15 DOM
  37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
  38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 13 DOM
  39. 2026-05-18
    listed $259,000 Active
  40. 2024-03-14
    historical $2,000
  41. 2024-01-12
    price $2,000
  42. 2023-12-15
    listed $2,100
  43. 2021-11-30
    soldstatus $276,040 Closed 386-char remark
    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Under Construction. This contemporary two-story townhome enjoys a free-flowing layout among the main-floor kitchen, Great Room and covered patio. The top floor features the spacious owner’s suite, two secondary bedrooms and a versatile loft space perfect as a home office or additional shared living area. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

  44. 2021-09-24
    status Pending 386-char remark
    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Under Construction. This contemporary two-story townhome enjoys a free-flowing layout among the main-floor kitchen, Great Room and covered patio. The top floor features the spacious owner’s suite, two secondary bedrooms and a versatile loft space perfect as a home office or additional shared living area. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

  45. 2021-09-23
    listed $276,040 Active 386-char remark
    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Under Construction. This contemporary two-story townhome enjoys a free-flowing layout among the main-floor kitchen, Great Room and covered patio. The top floor features the spacious owner’s suite, two secondary bedrooms and a versatile loft space perfect as a home office or additional shared living area. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$5,071 · $423/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$5,071 · $423/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$27,709
− Mortgage interest
−$13,164
− Property taxes
−$5,071
− Insurance
−$1,972
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,217
− Management
−$2,217
− HOA
−$4,212
− Depreciation
−$6,836
Taxable loss
−$7,980
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,915
After-tax cash flow
$-2,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,350–$25,050 screening

This well-maintained townhouse in Riverview, Florida, offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Replace carpet with tile in living areas — Improves durability and appearance
  • Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Summerfield Elementary School F FL #1,366/2,144 Nat'l #17,525/41,679 High East Bay High School F FL #447/667 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Hillsborough
NCES district ID
1200870
Math proficiency
47% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$50,622
Composite
41.6/100
National rank
#3435
State rank
#41 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Riverview

Score
79/100
State rank
#134
US rank
#2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Riverview, FL
County
Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
City population
137,988
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP)
49,470
Household income
$116,134
Rent vs Own
16.5% rent · 83.5% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,607,022 people
By 2030
1,733,968 · +7.9%
By 2040
1,979,565 · +23.2%
By 2050
2,203,427 · +37.1%
By 2075
2,667,893 · +66.0%
By 2100
2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
Race & ethnicity
White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
Languages at home
73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing
-10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-14.9% since first listed
10 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-07 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-27 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-22 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-18 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $2,000 APPFOLIO
  • 2024-01-12 Price Changed $2,000 APPFOLIO
  • 2023-12-15 Listed for Rent $2,100 APPFOLIO
  • 2021-11-30 Sold (MLS) $276,040 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2021-09-24 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2021-09-23 Listed $276,040 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,071 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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